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FXUS06 KWBC 222002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST THU FEBRUARY 22 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 28 - MAR 03, 2024
TODAY’S DYNAMICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED
MID-LEVEL MEAN HEIGHT PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN DURING THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DAY-TO-DAY VARIATIONS WITHIN THE PERIOD,
AND BETWEEN MODELS. THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEAN HEIGHT FORECASTS DEPICT A POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS IN THE VICINITY OF 40-50N/165-180W
(ABOUT +225 METERS ABOVE NORMAL ON THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND), ASSOCIATED WITH A
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS NORTHWARD OVER THE BERING SEA AND
FAR EASTERN SIBERIA. DOWNSTREAM, A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS
PREDICTED FROM MUCH OF ALASKA SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC AND
NORTHWESTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). WIDESPREAD BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS
ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH, WITH A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER (ABOUT -225 METERS
BELOW NORMAL ON THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND) DEPICTED NEAR THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST. OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN CANADA,
WELL ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST, ASSOCIATED WITH RELATIVELY LOW
AMPLITUDE FLOW. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND DEPICTS A MAXIMUM POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALY NEAR +225 METERS OVER THE SOUTHERN MARITIME PROVINCES OF CANADA.
ON DAY 6, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN (ECENS), GEFS, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN (CMCE), PREDICT A RAPIDLY MOVING AND SHORT-LIVED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. BY DAY 8, THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN
REPLACED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. A
LESS NOTABLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOWS UP IN THE
DAILY FORECASTS DURING DAYS 8 AND 9. THE 0Z ECENS MAINTAINS AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE
ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND EASTERN SIBERIA (WHICH FAVORS A COLDER PATTERN FOR
ALASKA), WHILE THE 0Z GEFS AND 0Z CMCE START TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER THIS
REGION (WHICH FAVORS A MILDER PATTERN FOR ALASKA).
THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FROM APPROXIMATELY THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND EASTERN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS (EXCLUDING SOUTHERN TEXAS
WHERE NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED), WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 80 PERCENT OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREDICTED MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND, THE ECENS AND CMCE
REFORECAST-CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE FORECASTS, AND THE STATISTICAL TEMPERATURE
ANALOGS DERIVED FROM THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES
ARE ELEVATED ACROSS THE FAR WEST IN PROXIMITY TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND
BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS, AND RAW (UNCALIBRATED) MODEL TEMPERATURES FROM THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS. TODAY’S 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK REFLECTS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE COOLER RAW MODEL TEMPERATURE FORECASTS AND THE WARMER
REFORECAST-CALIBRATED TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. ACROSS ALASKA,
SURFACE TEMPERATURE TOOLS ARE IN UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT FAVORING INCREASED CHANCES
FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 90 PERCENT OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA. THE EXCEPTION INCLUDES THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS, WHERE
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED. THIS SCENARIO IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH
THE PREDICTED MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND. FOR HAWAII, NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED, REPRESENTING A COMPROMISE BETWEEN AUTOMATED AND
CONSOLIDATED TEMPERATURE TOOLS.
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS INCREASED ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN LOWER 48 STATES, DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF
A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW SOUTH OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. CHANCES FOR WETTER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS MAY
EXCEED 70 PERCENT IN FAR NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA. FOR NEARLY ALL AREAS EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, AND EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS,
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASED. THIS IS INITIALLY DUE TO A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PREDICTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, FOLLOWED BY AN
INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OF MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. BETWEEN
THE STORM SYSTEMS ANTICIPATED OVER THE EAST AND THE WEST, THE CHANCES FOR
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FROM MOST OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FOR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, THIS IS A COMPLETE REVERSAL
FROM YESTERDAY’S OUTLOOK WHICH FAVORED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION; HOWEVER,
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS NOW EXPECTED TO FALL JUST PRIOR TO THE START OF
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. FOR ALASKA, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PREDICTED OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND, AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA. FOR SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED, CLOSER TO THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ANTICIPATED JUST OFF THE COAST. THE HAWAIIAN PRECIPITATION
OUTLOOK FAVORS MOSTLY ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION, SUPPORTED BY THE AUTOMATED
AND CONSOLIDATED PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, GIVEN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MEAN HEIGHT, TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
PATTERNS, OFFSET BY EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT DAY-TO-DAY VARIABILITY WITHIN THE 6-10
DAY TIME FRAME.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 01 - 07 2024
FOR WEEK-2, THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS DEPICT A MEAN MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION PATTERN THAT IS SIMILAR TO THE ONE PREDICTED FOR THE EARLIER 6-10
DAY PERIOD. THE THREE PRIMARY LONGWAVE FEATURES EXPECTED TO AFFECT NORTH
AMERICA INCLUDE LARGE ANOMALOUS RIDGES OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC (40-45N,
170-180W) AND IN THE VICINITY OF MAINE. THE 6Z GEFS DIFFERS IN ITS PREDICTION
OF THE LARGEST POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES SPREAD OUT FROM NEAR JAMES BAY
EASTWARD TO NEWFOUNDLAND. A LARGE ANOMALOUS TROUGH IS FAVORED FROM ALASKA
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CONUS. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND
DEPICTS BROAD BUT WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE ACROSS THE LOWER 48 STATES, WITH
BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS AND ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS FAVORED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
THIRDS OF THE CONUS.
THE WEEK-2 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES FOR MOST
OF THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS DONE FOR THE 6-10 DAY
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK, THE WEEK-2 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN COOLER RAW MODEL TEMPERATURES AND WARMER REFORECAST-CALIBRATED
TEMPERATURES. THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND BELOW-NORMAL
HEIGHTS PREDICTED ACROSS THIS REGION. FROM APPROXIMATELY THE ROCKIES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, ODDS MOSTLY FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, WITH 80 PERCENT OR BETTER CHANCES INDICATED FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE FORECAST OF MID-LEVEL ANOMALOUS RIDGING, AND MOST OF TODAY’S WEEK-2
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. IN ALASKA, MOST TOOLS CONTINUE TO FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES STATE-WIDE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WHERE NEAR
TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED. FARTHER SOUTH IN HAWAII,
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED, REPRESENTING A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
AUTOMATED AND CONSOLIDATED TEMPERATURE TOOLS.
AS WAS THE CASE FOR THE EARLIER 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK, THE WEEK-2
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. IN THE WEST, THIS IS DUE TO THE PROXIMITY
OF A SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS FROM JUST OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA TO NEAR THE COASTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND CALIFORNIA. WITH THE ALASKA 500-HPA TROUGH EXPECTED TO RELOAD FARTHER WEST
(ACCORDING TO THE ECENS AND GEFS), SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO FOCUS NEAR
THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA, INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION THERE. FOR MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA, HOWEVER, DRIER-THAN-NORMAL
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED, WITH ODDS EXCEEDING 40 PERCENT OVER WEST-CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, NEAR TO
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST AREAS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
INCREASED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO, AND POTENTIAL LEE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION, WITH THE STORM
CENTER SUBSEQUENTLY TRACKING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THE EXCEPTION IS NEW
ENGLAND, WHERE BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED NEAR THE CENTER OF A
STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ENHANCED ACROSS
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, AS DEPICTED BY THE AUTOMATED AND CONSOLIDATED
PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: NEAR-AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, BASED ON
GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE
PATTERNS, OFFSET BY CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY A
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19590217 - 20010216 - 19900302 - 19920210 - 19850307
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20010214 - 19900302 - 19730201 - 19590218 - 20000219
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 28 - MAR 03, 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO N A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA N B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS N A W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B B
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B
AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 01 - 07 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH N A ARIZONA N N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B B
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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