018
FXUS06 KWBC 282002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST WED FEBRUARY 28 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 05 - 09 2024
DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY ON THE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN
DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. STRONG POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC AND OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA CENTERED
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF MEAN NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES IS FORECAST OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA FROM ALASKA TO NORTHERN
MEXICO. PRIOR FORECASTS FROM THE ECMWF PREDICTED AN AREA OF ABOVE-NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS NOSING INTO ALASKA FROM THE STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE
STATE. THERE IS LESS SUPPORT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS TODAY FOR THIS
SOLUTION TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER ALASKA. IN HAWAII, NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S.
(CONUS), UNDER THE PREDICTED TROUGH. PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXCEED 60 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FROM GENERALLY THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE ATLANTIC.
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 80 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST. NEAR- TO SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH AUTOMATED AND
CONSOLIDATION TEMPERATURE TOOLS. IN ALASKA, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE WITH BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL
REFORECAST TOOLS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND THE EASTERN MAINLAND LEADING TO
HIGHER PROBABILITIES DURING THE PERIOD.
THE PREDICTED CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER ALASKA FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
FROM THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA THROUGH SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, WHILE BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE
CONUS DURING THE PERIOD AS THE PREDICTED TROUGH PROGRESSES ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST FOR
CALIFORNIA WITH CHANCES EXCEEDING 60% ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. A SECOND
MAXIMA, WITH PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 50%, IS FORECAST IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WHERE LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS MAY OCCUR. FINALLY, IN THE SOUTHEAST, A
LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR
HAWAII, WITH PREDICTED CYCLONIC FLOW.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 33% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE-AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG ALL THE MODEL TOOLS FOR MUCH OF THE COUNTRY OFFSET BY THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE PATTERN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 07 - 13 2024
DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD A PROGRESSION OF THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN IS
FORECAST ACROSS THE CONUS. THE NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN CONUS DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD PROGRESSES
EAST DURING WEEK-2. THIS WOULD BRING FALLING HEIGHTS TO THE EASTERN CONUS,
SETTING UP A BROAD TROUGH DURING WEEK-2 ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. A RELOADING
TROUGH IS FORECAST ACROSS THE WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK-2 PERIOD.
ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE FOUND FURTHER
NORTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN CANADA AND STRONG POSITIVE
ANOMALIES REMAIN FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC. BELOW-NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS REMAIN FORECAST FOR MOST OF ALASKA AND NORTHWEST NORTH AMERICA
IN GENERAL. NEAR-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR HAWAII.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MAINLAND ALASKA IN WEEK-2, UNDER
PRIMARILY NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, WHILE NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED IN WEEK-2 OVER MUCH OF THE WEST FROM THE PACIFIC COAST TO THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS, ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A PREDICTED TROUGH. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE MOST LIKELY FURTHER EAST OVER THE CONUS, FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
CENTRAL PLAINS, AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE ATLANTIC COAST, UNDER
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 80 PERCENT FOR THE UPPER NORTHEAST, WHILE
PROBABILITIES ARE MORE MODEST OVER THE SOUTHEAST, WHERE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED TO DROP TO NEAR-NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD. BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE AUTOMATED
TEMPERATURE BLEND AND THE CONSOLIDATION.
AS IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, MUCH OF THE CONUS IS FAVORED TO SEE ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD WITH 3 LOCAL MAXIMA. IN THE EAST, A
STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND BRING A PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. MEANWHILE, IN THE PLAINS, LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST AND THE
MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE WILL PROGRESS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. FINALLY, RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION FROM THE TROUGH AND LOW CLIMATOLOGIES IN
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BRING HIGHER CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA. IN ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS GENERALLY FAVORED ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALASKA WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN. IN HAWAII, BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS GENERALLY FAVORED
CONSISTENT WITH THE AUTOBLEND AND CONSOLIDATION TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 5% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL TOOLS ON THE PATTERN OFFSET BY A
QUITE PROGRESSIVE REDUCING CONFIDENCE.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19820310 - 19900211 - 19550309 - 19640309 - 19570209
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19900211 - 19550312 - 19820311 - 19740302 - 19570209
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 05 - 09 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B N E MONTANA N B WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B B
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 07 - 13 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B N OREGON B N NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B N NEVADA B A
W MONTANA N B E MONTANA N B WYOMING N A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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