432
FXUS06 KWBC 012002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST FRI MARCH 01 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 07 - 11 2024
DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT TODAY ON THE POSITIONING OF THE MEAN
500-HPA HEIGHT FEATURES DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE RELATIVE STRENGTHS OF THE HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA, WITH THE WEAKER SOLUTION BELONGING TO THE ECMWF AND A MORE
AMPLIFIED SOLUTION FROM THE GEFS. THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND HAS STRONG
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC AND
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MEANWHILE, AN
AREA OF MEAN NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES IS FORECAST OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA FROM ALASKA TO NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS FEATURE IS FORECASTED FURTHER EAST
RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY. THE MEAN 6-10 DAY PATTERN BELIES THE FACT THAT THE
PATTERN IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE WITH AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING
MUCH OF THE CONUS DURING THE PERIOD AND A RELOADING TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST
BY THE END OF THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE GEFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE RELOADING
WESTERN TROUGH TO BE QUITE A BIT STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF. A STRONGER TROUGH
WOULD LEAD TO MORE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN HAWAII, NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS
U.S. (CONUS), UNDER THE PREDICTED TROUGH. PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXCEED 50 PERCENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST AND DESERT
SOUTHWEST. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE
ATLANTIC. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 70 PERCENT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR
EASTERN HAWAII AND NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
CONSISTENT WITH AUTOMATED AND CONSOLIDATION TEMPERATURE TOOLS. IN ALASKA,
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MAINLAND WITH CHANCES
EXCEEDING 60% ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE AND WESTERN COASTAL REGIONS OF THE STATE
WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL REFORECAST TOOLS. NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA
DURING THE PERIOD WITH REFORECAST TOOLS INDICATING WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE
REGION BUT RAW DYNAMICAL TOOLS CONTINUE TO LEAN BELOW-NORMAL.
THE PREDICTED CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER ALASKA FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL MAINLAND ALASKA THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WHILE
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS DURING THE PERIOD
AS THE PREDICTED TROUGH PROGRESSES ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ALONG WITH AN AREA IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH
PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 50%. ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD A LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
PERIOD. NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF HAWAII CONSISTENT WITH
THE CONSOLIDATION AND BLENDED PRECIPITATION FORECASTS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT-AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG ALL THE MODEL TOOLS FOR MUCH OF THE COUNTRY OFFSET BY THE
LARGE DIFFERENCE IN 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 09 - 15 2024
THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE WEEK-2 FORECAST. THERE IS BETTER
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL TOOLS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE 500-HPA
FEATURES BUT THE STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THE GEFS
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A DEEPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST AT THE ONSET OF THE
PERIOD, WHILE THE ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT BRINGS
THE TROUGH INLAND. DURING THE PERIOD, THIS TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE
CONUS. THE STRONGER GEFS TROUGH WOULD HELP TO PROMOTE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES BRINGING HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, THE
ECMWF IS WEAKER, DEVELOPING A WEAK MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE AND GENERALLY REDUCED
CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE MANUAL 500-HPA
HEIGHT BLEND CONTINUES TO FORECAST BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CONUS AND ALASKA. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST FOR THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WITH NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS FAVORED ACROSS THE EAST
COAST WITH STRONG POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A
SECOND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
NORTH PACIFIC.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MAINLAND ALASKA IN WEEK-2, UNDER
PRIMARILY NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, WHILE NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED IN WEEK-2
OVER MUCH OF THE WEST FROM THE PACIFIC COAST TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS, ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A PREDICTED TROUGH. FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
LOWER-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED WITH A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH CROSSING THE SOUTHERN TIER BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO
PRIOR FORECASTS. ELSEWHERE IN THE EAST, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED UNDER
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 70 PERCENT FOR THE UPPER NORTHEAST AND UPPER
GREAT LAKES WHILE PROBABILITIES ARE MORE MODEST OVER THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA, WHERE 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED TO DROP TO NEAR-NORMAL
DURING THE PERIOD. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE BIG
ISLAND OF HAWAII, WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
STATE CONSISTENT WITH THE AUTOMATED TEMPERATURE BLEND AND THE CONSOLIDATION.
AS IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, MUCH OF THE CONUS IS FAVORED TO SEE ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. IN THE SOUTHEAST, A STALLED FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND BRING A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF
THE REGION DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, IN THE PLAINS,
LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST AND THE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE WILL PROGRESS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. FINALLY, RESIDUAL
PRECIPITATION FROM THE TROUGH AND LOW CLIMATOLOGIES IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
BRING HIGHER CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. MEANWHILE, THE
RELOADING TROUGH FORECAST FOR THE WEST MAY BRING ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO
PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE PERIOD. IN ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS GENERALLY FAVORED ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH SOUTHEAST ALASKA. IN HAWAII,
NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS GENERALLY FAVORED CONSISTENT WITH THE AUTOBLEND
AND CONSOLIDATION TOOLS. HOWEVER, BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR
WESTERN HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW-AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL TOOLS ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN,
PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN CONUS, OFFSET FAIR AGREEMENT IN SENSIBLE WEATHER
TOOLS.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19800312 - 19940211 - 19740228 - 19560303 - 19640310
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19940211 - 19740301 - 19760223 - 19560301 - 19740307
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 07 - 11 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B N NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B B E MONTANA N B WYOMING B N
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B B
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 09 - 15 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B N E MONTANA A N WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A N
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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