932
FXUS01 KWBC 020800
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EST SAT MAR 02 2024
VALID 12Z SAT MAR 02 2024 - 12Z MON MAR 04 2024
...WINTER STORM CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND IN THE WEST WITH HEAVY
MOUNTAIN SNOW, WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS, AND POWERFUL BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS IN THE SIERRA NEVADA...
...WINTRY MIX FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SOME
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE...
...A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN UP THE EAST COAST
THROUGH SATURDAY...
...MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE, SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES EXPANDING FROM THE
PLAINS/MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND WITH CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THREAT FOR THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE WEST,
INCLUDING DANGEROUS, BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA AS
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORCES ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN
U.S. A MULTI-DAY INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC INTERACTING
WITH COLDER AIR PUSHING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA IS BRINGING HEAVY
HIGHER ELEVATION, MOUNTAIN SNOWS ACROSS MOST OF THE RANGES OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, THE GREAT BASIN,
AND THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. THERE IS AT LEAST A MODERATE
CHANCE (40-60% PROBABILITY) OF AN ADDITIONAL 12"+ OF SNOWFALL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION, WIDESPREAD
WIND-RELATED ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE GREATER WESTERN U.S. AS WIND GUSTS REACH UPWARDS OF 55 MPH,
WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 75 MPH FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS, LEADING TO THE
RISK OF DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND
HIGH WINDS IS MOST INTENSE IN THE SIERRA NEVADA, WHERE HEAVY SNOW
RATES EXCEEDING 3" PER HOUR AND WINDS GUSTING OVER 100 MPH ARE
CAUSING SIGNIFICANT BLOWING, DRIFTING SNOW AND WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS, MAKING TRAVEL IMPOSSIBLE THROUGH THE AREA. THE MOST
INTENSE SNOW AND WIND SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE THIS WEEKEND WITH
THE COLDER AIRMASS MOVING IN, WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S FOR
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES; 30S AND 40S FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, THE GREAT BASIN, AND CENTRAL ROCKIES; 50S FOR
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA; AND 60S FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER INTO THE SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
FALLING HEIGHTS AS THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL HELP TO DEEPEN/ORGANIZE A LOW
PRESSURE/FRONTAL SYSTEM DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TRACK EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES SUNDAY.
LIMITED MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RATHER LOW. HOWEVER, IN THE COLDER AIR TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. WINDS WILL LIKELY ALSO BE
RATHER BREEZY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BLOWING SNOW. TO THE
EAST, A LOW PRESSURE/FRONTAL SYSTEM LIFTING UP THE EAST COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD SHOWERS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY BRINGING MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL,
PARTICULARLY FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST, FLORIDA, AND THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL COME DOWN OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
COAST.
WIDESPREAD WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST THIS
WEEKEND. THE GREATEST ANOMALIES WILL BE CENTERED OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY, SPREADING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS ON
SUNDAY, WHERE FORECAST HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S AND 70S
ARE UPWARDS OF 25-35 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. SOME HIGHS MAY
TIE/BREAK LOCAL DAILY RECORDS. FURTHER SOUTH, HIGHS WILL BE INTO
THE 70S AND 80S FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY, THE
COMBINATION OF THESE WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
DRY CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED IN ANOTHER CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE
WEATHER (LEVEL 2/3) FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE WARMING TREND WILL
SPREAD INTO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE
COASTAL LOW, WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 40S AND 50S IN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE 50S AND 60S IN THE MID-ATLANTIC. WHILE NOT QUITE
AS ANOMALOUS, HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE 60S AND 70S ARE
STILL RUNNING ABOVE EARLY MARCH AVERAGES.
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