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FXUS06 KWBC 042053
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST MON MARCH 04 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 10 - 14 2024
TODAY’S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS DEPICTED BY 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN
THERE IS LESS CONSENSUS REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF VARIOUS
FEATURES. TODAY’S 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY MANUAL BLEND FEATURES AN AMPLIFIED
TROUGH OVER ALASKA WITH NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTENDING TOWARDS THE WEST
COAST OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE WITH ASSOCIATED
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES IS FAVORED OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA,
WITH A TROUGH DOWNSTREAM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
AMPLIFIED RIDGING OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN CONUS FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS,
AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST U.S., WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES (>80%) OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WITH ASSOCIATED
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION BRINGS A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST, WHILE NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY
FOR THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AMPLIFIED TROUGHING
OVER ALASKA BRINGS CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE STATE,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN COAST WHERE PROBABILITIES EXCEED 80%. THE
LIKELIHOOD OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DECREASES FROM EAST TO WEST, WITH
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED FOR THE PANHANDLE. THE NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS OF
HAWAII TILT SLIGHTLY TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WHILE NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY FOR THE REST OF THE STATE, CONSISTENT WITH THE
HAWAII CON.
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE WEST COAST RESULTS IN ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
COAST, WITH PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 60% FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MUCH
OF THE EASTERN CONUS TILTS TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION UNDER SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITIES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC.
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TILT SLIGHTLY TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING THE REGION.
FOR ALASKA, NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE CHUKCHI SEA TILTS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE TOWARD BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION, WHILE ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS OVER
SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, SLIGHTLY FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE
NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS OF HAWAII TILT SLIGHTLY TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION, WHILE NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE MOST LIKELY FOR THE REST OF
THE STATE, CONSISTENT WITH THE HAWAII CON.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
MODEL ENSEMBLES AGREEING ON THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PICTURE BUT EXHIBITING A WIDE
SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 12 - 18 2024
THE WEEK-2 SYNOPTIC PICTURE FEATURES SOME LARGE SHIFTS FROM THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER CANADA ARE FAVORED TO SPREAD
WESTWARD, COVERING MUCH OF THE WEST COAST BY WEEK-2, WHILE TROUGHING OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC RETROGRESSES OVER THE BERING SEA. POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ALSO
MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CONUS, WHILE THE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC SHIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN SOMEWHAT.
WITH EXTENSIVE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER MUCH OF CANADA AND THE WESTERN
CONUS, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BECOME FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 DURING
WEEK-2 WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (>70%) ONCE AGAIN CENTERED OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST FROM EARLIER
STORM SYSTEMS RESULTS IN NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE
GREAT BASIN. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO MOST LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION DURING WEEK-2. MOST
OF MAINLAND ALASKA CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WHILE
THE PANHANDLE TILTS TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE WEEK-2 TEMPERATURE
OUTLOOK FOR HAWAII IS UNCHANGED FROM THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH A TILT TOWARDS
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS AND NEAR-NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE STATE.
MODELS DEPICT A SIGNIFICANT LEE CYCLOGENESIS EVENT OCCURRING OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS EARLY IN WEEK-2. WIDESPREAD STORMINESS IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE PLAINS
TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD RESULTING IN A TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ODDS ALONG
THE GULF COAST AND OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BUILDING POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OVER THE GREAT BASIN REDUCE ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE WEST COAST, PUSHING
THE WESTERN CONUS TOWARD NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION, EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WHERE A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
INDICATED. MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALASKA IS FAVORED FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW, WHILE BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES TO BE LIKELIEST FOR WESTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE STATE. UPPER-AIR
CONVERGENCE IS FAVORED TO INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC, TILTING ALL OF
HAWAII SLIGHTLY TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
MODEL ENSEMBLES AGREEING ON THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PICTURE BUT EXHIBITING A WIDE
SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS.
FORECASTER: DANIEL BARANDIARAN
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19740301 - 19610306 - 19820313 - 19740307 - 19940218
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19790226 - 19790221 - 19760228 - 19740228 - 19610305
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 10 - 14 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A N OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A A
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B
MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N B
FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 12 - 18 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON N N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N N NEVADA N N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH N A ARIZONA N B COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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