939  
FXUS01 KWBC 050806  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
305 AM EST TUE MAR 05 2024  
 
VALID 12Z TUE MAR 05 2024 - 12Z THU MAR 07 2024  
 
...A WET WEATHER PATTERN FOR LARGE AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE  
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...  
 
...HEAVY HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWS CONTINUE FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF  
THE WEST TUESDAY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY...  
 
...MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER  
48 TO THE EAST OF THE ROCKIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...  
 
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING AREAS OF MODERATE  
RAINFALL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ALONG A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT  
STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT INTO THE LOWER GREAT  
LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH  
THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE FRONT MAKES SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS. TO THE  
SOUTH, ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL LIFT  
NORTHWARD, BRINGING WITH IT ADDITIONAL GULF MOISTURE AND STORM  
CHANCES INTO THE SOUTHEAST. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO  
DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS  
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. MORE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO  
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REGION WITH AN  
ISOLATED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. MEANWHILE, A COASTAL LOW IN THE  
MID-ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE  
SHOWERS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. BY  
WEDNESDAY, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN  
TO BETTER ORGANIZE AND SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST TOWARDS  
THE MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT  
LAKES WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST AS WELL, HELPING TO  
FOCUS A RENEWED ROUND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS ALONG A NORTHEASTWARD  
AXIS FROM THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. A SLIGHT  
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/5) IS IN PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF  
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OVERLAP WET  
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND AREAS WITH HIGHER STREAM FLOWS, WHICH  
MAY RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. SOME  
WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY MIX IN NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT OVER  
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY.  
 
ONE MORE DAY OF HEAVY HIGHER ELEVATION/MOUNTAIN SNOWS CONTINUES IN  
THE WEST AS AN ENERGETIC JET STREAM SITS OVER A QUASI-STATIONARY  
BOUNDARY AND AN INFLUX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE FOCUSED THROUGH  
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHERN PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE  
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES. SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOW ARE  
FORECAST IN THE REGIONAL MOUNTAIN RANGES FROM THE SOUTHERN  
CASCADES AND NORTHERN SIERRA EAST TO THE TETONS IN WYOMING. COLDER  
AIR SETTLING IN WITH THE FRONT HAS BROUGHT SNOW LEVELS LOWER,  
BRINGING SNOW TO INTERIOR LOWER ELEVATION VALLEY LOCATIONS AS WELL  
FROM SOUTHERN OREGON INTO WESTERN IDAHO. ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM  
SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL HELP TO  
SHIFT THE INFLUX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE SOUTHWARD BY WEDNESDAY,  
FINALLY BRINGING IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SNOWFALL TAPERS OFF.  
ALONG THE COAST, SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY  
FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, SHIFTING SOUTHWARD WITH THE SYSTEM INTO  
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY. HERE, MORE SENSITIVE CONDITIONS DUE  
TO RECENT HIGH PROFILE RAINFALL EVENTS MAY LEAD TO AN ISOLATED BUT  
NONZERO THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING.  
 
ELSEWHERE, AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO DEEPEN/BETTER  
ORGANIZE A LOW PRESSURE/FRONTAL SYSTEM LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.  
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL LOOKS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CANADIAN  
BORDER FROM NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY EARLY  
THURSDAY. FURTHER SOUTH, ANOTHER ORGANIZING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL  
ALSO BRING INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE CENTRAL AND  
SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST  
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE BY 10-20 DEGREES  
FOR THE LOWER 48 EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH MIDWEEK. SOME EVEN  
GREATER ANOMALIES WILL BE FOUND IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/LOWER  
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN REACH INTO THE 70S,  
25-35 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH BY  
WEDNESDAY WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY COOLER, BUT STILL  
ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 60S. THE WARMEST  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST INTO  
SOUTHERN TEXAS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-80S TO LOW 90S. A FEW DAILY  
RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGHS MAY BE REACHED IN BOTH LOCATIONS.  
OTHERWISE, ALONG THE EAST COAST, FORECAST HIGHS RANGE BETWEEN THE  
40S AND 50S IN NEW ENGLAND, 50S AND 60S IN THE MID-ATLANTIC, 60S  
AND 70S FOR THE SOUTHEAST, AND 70S AND 80S INTO FLORIDA. FOR  
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S  
FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST, 50S AND 60S FROM THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE  
LOWER OHIO VALLEY, AND THE 60S AND 70S FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND  
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN THE WEST, HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR  
BELOW AVERAGE AS MEAN TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE, WITH  
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE 20S AND 30S FOR THE NORTHERN  
ROCKIES/ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS, 30S AND 40S FOR THE GREAT BASIN AND  
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, 50S AND 60S FOR CALIFORNIA, AND 60S AND 70S IN  
THE SOUTHWEST.  
 
PUTNAM  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
 

 
 
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