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FXUS06 KWBC 052004
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST TUE MARCH 05 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 11 - 15 2024
TODAY’S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS DEPICTED BY 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, ALTHOUGH THERE IS
LITTLE CONSENSUS ONCE AGAIN REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF VARIOUS
FEATURES. TODAY’S 500-HPA HEIGHT AND ANOMALY MANUAL BLEND FEATURES AN AMPLIFIED
TROUGH OVER ALASKA WITH NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTENDING INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC. A BROAD RIDGE WITH ASSOCIATED POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES IS FAVORED
OVER MUCH OF CANADA AND EXTENDS INTO THE EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS), AND
ANOTHER AMPLIFIED TROUGH IS PREDICTED DOWNSTREAM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
AMPLIFIED RIDGING OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN CONUS FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE LOWER 48 EAST
OF THE ROCKIES, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (>80%) CENTERED OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION MAKES
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN AND PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AMPLIFIED TROUGHING OVER ALASKA BRINGS ENHANCED CHANCES FOR
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE STATE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN
COAST WHERE PROBABILITIES EXCEED 80%. THE LIKELIHOOD OF BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DECREASES FROM EAST TO WEST, WITH A TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PANHANDLE. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY FOR
THE WHOLE STATE OF HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE HAWAII CON.
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST RESULTS IN ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS, ALTHOUGH
PROBABILITIES ARE MUCH REDUCED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY’S OUTLOOK AND DO NOT
EXCEED 40%. THIS ONSHORE FLOW IS LIMITED TO MORE NORTHERN LATITUDES RELATIVE TO
YESTERDAY’S MODEL SOLUTIONS, RESULTING IN A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CONUS ALSO TILT TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITIES OVER COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. FOR ALASKA, NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE CHUKCHI SEA
TILTS THE WESTERN COAST OF THE STATE TOWARD BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION, WHILE
ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS OVER SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, TILTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA
WHERE PROBABILITIES EXCEED 50%. THE NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS OF HAWAII TILT
SLIGHTLY TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION, WHILE NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ARE MOST LIKELY FOR THE REST OF THE STATE, CONSISTENT WITH THE HAWAII CON.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
MODEL ENSEMBLES AGREEING ON THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PICTURE BUT EXHIBITING A WIDE
SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 13 - 19 2024
THE WEEK-2 SYNOPTIC PICTURE FEATURES SOME LARGE SHIFTS FROM THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER CANADA ARE FAVORED TO SPREAD
WESTWARD, COVERING MUCH OF THE WEST COAST BY WEEK-2, WHILE TROUGHING OVER
ALASKA RETROGRESSES OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE A
RELOADING OF TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WITH EXTENSIVE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES PREDICTED OVER MUCH OF CANADA AND WEST
COAST, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BECOME FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS
AND ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST DURING WEEK-2 WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (>70%)
SHIFTED EASTWARD AND CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST FROM EARLIER STORM SYSTEMS RESULTS IN NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST AND A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN. NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO MOST LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION DURING WEEK-2. MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA
CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WHILE THE PANHANDLE
TILTS TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE WEEK-2 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR
HAWAII IS UNCHANGED FROM THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FAVORED FOR THE WHOLE STATE.
MODELS DEPICT A SIGNIFICANT LEE CYCLOGENESIS EVENT OCCURRING OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS EARLY IN WEEK-2. WIDESPREAD STORMINESS IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE PLAINS
TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD RESULTING IN A TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, WITH ENHANCED ODDS ALONG THE GULF
COAST, SOUTHEAST, AND OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ENHANCED GULF MOISTURE
FLOW INCREASES PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. BUILDING POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE GREAT BASIN
REDUCE ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE WEST COAST, PUSHING THE WESTERN CONUS TOWARD
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION (>50%) OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN OREGON. MOST OF
ALASKA IS FAVORED FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. UPPER-AIR
CONVERGENCE IS FAVORED TO INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC, TILTING ALL OF
HAWAII SLIGHTLY TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
MODEL ENSEMBLES AGREEING ON THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PICTURE BUT EXHIBITING A WIDE
SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS.
FORECASTER: DANIEL BARANDIARAN
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19530312 - 19610306 - 19960222 - 19940218 - 19770311
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19770312 - 19790226 - 19530313 - 19730303 - 19760229
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 11 - 15 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A A
UTAH N A ARIZONA A B COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A N KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B
MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 13 - 19 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N B NEVADA N B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A N WYOMING N N
UTAH N B ARIZONA N B COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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