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FXUS06 KWBC 062004
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST WED MARCH 06 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 12 - 16 2024
TODAY’S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS DEPICTED BY 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, ALTHOUGH THERE IS
LITTLE CONSENSUS ONCE AGAIN REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF VARIOUS
FEATURES. TODAY’S 500-HPA HEIGHT AND ANOMALY MANUAL BLEND FEATURES AN AMPLIFIED
TROUGH OVER ALASKA WITH NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTENDING INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC. A BROAD AREA OF POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES IS FAVORED OVER MUCH OF
CANADA AND EXTENDS INTO THE EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS), WHILE AN
AMPLIFYING RIDGE IS DEPICTED TAKING SHAPE OFF THE WEST COAST. A WEAK TROUGH IS
FAVORED TO EMERGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND ANOTHER AMPLIFIED TROUGH IS PREDICTED
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND AMPLIFYING RIDGING OFF THE
WEST COAST FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE LOWER 48 EAST OF
THE ROCKIES, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (>80%) EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS AN INCREASING SIGNAL FOR NEAR- TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IN VARIOUS FORECAST TOOLS,
WHICH IS REFLECTED IN TODAY’S OUTLOOK, WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED
FOR MOST OF THE ROCKIES AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. AMPLIFIED TROUGHING
OVER ALASKA BRINGS ENHANCED CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF
THE STATE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN COAST WHERE PROBABILITIES EXCEED 80%.
THE LIKELIHOOD OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DECREASES FROM EAST TO WEST, WITH A
TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE PANHANDLE. THE HAWAII CON HAS
BEEN TRENDING COLDER IN RECENT DAYS, TODAY INDICATING A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WHOLE STATE.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE WEST COAST WITH BUILDING RIDGING
OFFSHORE. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
CONUS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH ENHANCED LEE CYCLOGENESIS
DEPICTED IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND SOUTHEAST U.S. WHERE THE RESULTING LOW PRESSURE IS FAVORED TO INTERACT WITH
ENHANCED GULF MOISTURE. FOR ALASKA, SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER MUCH OF THE
STATE, FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA
WHERE PROBABILITIES EXCEED 50%, WHILE MOST TOOLS FAVOR NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR THE WESTERN COAST OF ALASKA. NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
MOST LIKELY FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE HAWAII CON.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
MODEL ENSEMBLES AGREEING ON THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PICTURE BUT EXHIBITING A WIDE
SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 14 - 20 2024
THE WEEK-2 SYNOPTIC PICTURE FEATURES SOME LARGE SHIFTS FROM THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER CANADA ARE FAVORED TO SHIFT
WESTWARD, COVERING MUCH OF THE WEST COAST BY WEEK-2, WHILE TROUGHING OVER
ALASKA RETROGRESSES OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE A
DEEPENING OF TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAT
INITIALLY EMERGES IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
WITH EXTENSIVE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES PREDICTED OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN CANADA
AND THE WEST COAST, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR MUCH
OF THE CONUS DURING WEEK-2 WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (>70%) OVER THE
NORTHEAST U.S. THE AREA OF NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FEATURED IN THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD IS SHIFTED EASTWARD AS NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES INCREASE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO MUCH
WEAKER OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
RESULTING FROM INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND STORMINESS FAVORED FOR THE REGION
DURING WEEK-2. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW FAVORED TO CONTINUE OVER ALASKA,
PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE MAINLAND
ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE GREATLY DIMINISHED, WHILE SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA
CONTINUES TO TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
MODELS DEPICT A SIGNIFICANT LEE CYCLOGENESIS EVENT OCCURRING OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS EARLY IN WEEK-2. WIDESPREAD STORMINESS IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE PLAINS
TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD RESULTING IN A TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, WITH ENHANCED ODDS ALONG THE GULF
COAST, SOUTHEAST, AND OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. BUILDING POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE GREAT BASIN REDUCE ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE WEST
COAST, PUSHING THE WESTERN CONUS TOWARD BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION, WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION (>50%) OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MOST OF ALASKA IS FAVORED FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
PROBABILITIES FOR THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE STATE. UPPER-AIR CONVERGENCE IS
FAVORED TO INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC, TILTING ALL OF HAWAII SLIGHTLY
TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 37% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 38% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
MODEL ENSEMBLES AGREEING ON THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PICTURE BUT EXHIBITING A WIDE
SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS.
FORECASTER: DANIEL BARANDIARAN
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19770312 - 19730304 - 19530313 - 19960222 - 19730309
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19770312 - 19730304 - 19730313 - 19530313 - 19510215
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 12 - 16 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N N NEVADA N N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A A
UTAH N A ARIZONA N A COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 14 - 20 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING N B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A A COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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