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FXUS06 KWBC 072003
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST THU MARCH 07 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 13 - 17 2024
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED AMPLIFIED
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN MODELS DUE TO RECENT MODEL
SKILL. THE RESULTANT MANUAL BLEND FEATURES A TROUGH OVER WESTERN ALASKA WITH
NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTENDING INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. A BROAD AREA OF
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES IS FAVORED OVER MUCH OF CANADA AND EXTENDS INTO THE
EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS), WHILE AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE IS DEPICTED TAKING
SHAPE OFF THE WEST COAST. A TROUGH IS FAVORED TO EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS AND ANOTHER AMPLIFIED TROUGH IS PREDICTED DOWNSTREAM OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR HAWAII.
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND AMPLIFYING RIDGING OFF THE
WEST COAST FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEST COAST AND MOST OF THE
LOWER 48 EAST OF THE ROCKIES, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (>80%) OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS. THERE IS AN INCREASING SIGNAL FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OVER SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA, SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN TEXAS,
SUPPORTED BY MOST DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. AMPLIFIED TROUGHING
OVER ALASKA BRINGS ENHANCED CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF
THE STATE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN COAST WHERE PROBABILITIES EXCEED 70%.
THE LIKELIHOOD OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DECREASES FROM WEST TO EAST, WITH A
TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE PANHANDLE. THE HAWAII CON HAS
BEEN TRENDING COLDER IN RECENT DAYS, TODAY INDICATING A TILT TOWARDS
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WHOLE STATE.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN CONUS WITH BUILDING
RIDGING OFFSHORE. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR MUCH OF THE REST
OF THE CONUS, ESPECIALLY FOR NEW MEXICO WITH A TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE REGION
AND AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST U.S. WHERE
THE RESULTING LOW PRESSURE IS FAVORED TO INTERACT WITH ENHANCED GULF MOISTURE.
FOR ALASKA, SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER MUCH OF THE STATE, FAVORING
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA WHERE
PROBABILITIES EXCEED 50%, WHILE MOST TOOLS FAVOR NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR THE WESTERN COAST OF ALASKA. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
MOST LIKELY FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE HAWAII CON.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS AND FORECAST TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 15 - 21 2024
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY PERSISTENT
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND THE
SURROUNDING REGIONS. THE GEFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A
STRONG RIDGE WITH ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND
ALASKA, WHILE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
PREDICTED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. TROUGHING OVER ALASKA DURING THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD RETROGRESSES OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE
PREDICTED OVER HAWAII.
WITH EXTENSIVE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND RIDING PREDICTED OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CONUS, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CONUS DURING WEEK-2 WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (>70%) OVER THE WEST
COAST. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS AS WELL AS SOUTHERN FLORIDA, WHILE
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER PARTS OF NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS,
CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RESULTING FROM
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND STORMINESS FAVORED FOR THE REGION DURING WEEK-2. WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW FAVORED TO CONTINUE OVER ALASKA, PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE MAINLAND ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE GREATLY
DIMINISHED, WHILE SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA CONTINUES TO TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. IN HAWAII, CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ELEVATED
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN, AS INDICATED BY THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION TOOL.
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS DUE TO POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING PREDICTED
OVER THE REGION. A PREDICTED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS RESULTS IN A TILT
TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ALONG THE GULF COAST AND THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED OVER ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO, WHILE NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS, SUPPORTED BY MOST PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. MOST OF
ALASKA IS FAVORED FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE
STATE. UPPER-AIR CONVERGENCE IS FAVORED TO INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC,
TILTING ALL OF HAWAII SLIGHTLY TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S GFS
SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS AND FORECAST TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TOOLS.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19730304 - 19730309 - 19530313 - 19770312 - 19960222
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19730304 - 19730309 - 19770312 - 19730314 - 19510215
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 13 - 17 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A N WYOMING N A
UTAH N B ARIZONA N A COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 15 - 21 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA N N
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI N B
ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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