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FXUS06 KWBC 121902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE MARCH 12 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 18 - 22 2024
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED AMPLIFIED
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN MODELS DUE TO RECENT MODEL
SKILL. THE RESULTANT MANUAL BLEND FEATURES TROUGING OVER THE BERING SEA. A
BROAD TROUGH WITH NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES IS FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S., WHILE AMPLIFYING RIDGING WITH ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NORTH AMERICA, THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC AND ALASKA. A WEAK
TROUGH IS PREDICTED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE
PREDICTED ACROSS HAWAII AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHING UNDERCUTS THE RIDGING OVER THE
PACIFIC.
NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FAVOR
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF THE CONUS, EXCEPT FOR
NORTHEASTERN MAINE AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA WHERE SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER
MUCH OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS, WHILE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TOOLS. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ELEVATED OVER
MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS AND INTO ALASKA UNDERNEATH RIDGING. BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED ACROSS HAWAII UNDERNEATH TROUGHING AND
NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST, SOUTHERN PLAINS, CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COAST, AND SOUTHEAST NEAR
THE BASE OF THE PREDICTED TROUGH AXIS, AND WHERE A SLOW MOVING FRONT FAVORS ONE
OR MORE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ENHANCING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THESE
AREAS. BEHIND THE FRONT, AND UNDER ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW,
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY, THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST. RIDGING PREDICTED ACROSS THE WEST FAVORS ENHANCED CHANCES OF
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA. TROUGHING RELOADING LATER IN THE PERIOD SLIGHTLY ELEVATES
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. RIDGING
BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC FAVORS A NORTHWARD ORIENTED STORM
TRACK ACROSS ALASKA, WITH ABOVE (BELOW)-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
INCREASED OVER MUCH OF THE MAINLAND AND ALEUTIANS (SOUTHEAST ALASKA).
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASED ACROSS HAWAII CONSISTENT WITH
A MORE NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE STATE IN THE WAKE OF
TROUGHING.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S GFS
SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT, OFFSET BY A TRANSIENT MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN, AND
SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 20 - 26 2024
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY PERSISTENT
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND THE
SURROUNDING REGIONS. ANOMALOUS TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS TROUGH IS FAVORED TO BE ORIENTED MORE TO THE
WEST COMPARED TO THE INITIAL TROUGH IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, ALLOWING FOR SOME
WEAK RIDGING TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH AMERICA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
PERIOD. RIDGING IS ALSO PREDICTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC, EXTENDING
NORTHWARD THROUGH ALASKA. THE WEEK-2 500-HPA MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND DEPICTS
BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN CONUS, AND
NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST GIVEN THE RETROGRESSION OF
RIDGING AND MORE INFLUENCE FROM TROUGHING. SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE
INDICATED ACROSS THE COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST, IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC. ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED FOR MUCH OF ALASKA,
EXCLUDING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WHERE UPSTREAM TROUGHING FAVORS A TRANSITION TO
BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS. BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS REMAIN FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII.
INCREASED NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE FORECAST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH THE EXCEPTIONS CONTINUING TO BE PARTS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA AND NEW ENGLAND WHERE WEAK PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
REMAIN FAVORED. THE TROUGH FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS FAVORS
INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ACROSS THE WEST, PROBABILITIES FOR
NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED OVER MOST AREAS, SUPPORTED BY
MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS ALASKA GIVEN THE RIDGE PLACEMENT,
CONSISTENT WITH NEARLY ALL DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII DUE TO THE BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA
HEIGHTS.
THE TRANSITION TO MORE TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS RESULTS IN A BROAD
AREA OF ELEVATED NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ACROSS MOST
OF THE CONUS, EXCLUDING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHERE NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED CLOSER TO THE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. MODELS DO NOT CLEARLY INDICATE ANY MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS, BUT THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS A STORM TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LEADING TO AN
ENHANCEMENT OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN THAT REGION, WITH
OCCASIONAL FRONTALLY FOCUSED PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE EAST. AS IN THE
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK, RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FAVORS A NORTHWARD ORIENTED
STORM TRACK ACROSS ALASKA RESULTING IN ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE MAINLAND AND ALEUTIANS, AND INCREASED CHANCES
FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA. BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII, AS MEAN TROUGHING SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH TO THE
EAST.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S GFS
SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN EVOLUTION, OFFSET BY
WEAKENING SYNOPTIC SIGNALS LATER IN THE PERIOD.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19730318 - 19990310 - 19900307 - 19530316 - 19620324
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19730317 - 19990310 - 19900307 - 19530317 - 19710307
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 18 - 22 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A N NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA N A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA B N
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B N
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE A N
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 20 - 26 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA B A WYOMING N A
UTAH A A ARIZONA N A COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N N
N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N N
MINNESOTA N A IOWA N A MISSOURI N A
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK N A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A B
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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