035
FXUS06 KWBC 131902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT WED MARCH 13 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 19 - 23 2024
THERE IS GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA, WITH TROUGHING INITIALLY FAVORED OVER THE EAST, AND THEN
RELOADING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. ANOMALOUS
RIDGING IS PREDICTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC EXTENDING THROUGH ALASKA. A
TREND TO MORE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS IS FAVORED AS
THE PERIOD PROGRESSES, WITH THE 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE BEING ON THE SLOWER SIDE
WITH THIS TRANSITION. THE 0Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES DEPICT STRONGER
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMPARED TO THE 0Z GEFS WHICH ADDS SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EAST. TODAY’S 500-HPA MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND INDICATES BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS
FOR MUCH OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS. NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE
PREDICTED FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS, EXCEPT FOR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, WHERE SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST. THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES INCREASES GREATLY ACROSS ALASKA, UNDERNEATH
AMPLIFIED RIDGING. BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED ACROSS HAWAII AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING UNDERCUTS THE RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC.
NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FAVOR
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST SUPPORTED BY
THE RELATIVELY WARMER ECMWF REFORECAST TOOL COMPARED TO THE OTHER GUIDANCE, AND
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS FROM MONTANA EASTWARD AS RENEWED TROUGHING DIGS
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. INCREASED PACIFIC FLOW AND WEAKER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
ANOMALIES SUPPORT INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF
THE WEST AND INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOMALOUS RIDGING
FAVORS HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER ALASKA.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED ACROSS HAWAII DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FAVORS INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER DURING THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN ARE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS FEATURE, AND AS A RESULT, BRING MORE OF
THIS PRECIPITATION NORTHWARD TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE GEFS
REFORECAST TOOL INDICATES ELEVATED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC, AND MIDWEST, AND GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION, NEAR-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THESE REGIONS. ENHANCED PACIFIC FLOW ELEVATES
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS, WITH
INCOMING TROUGHING FURTHER ENHANCING CHANCES ACROSS PARTS OF THE ROCKIES AND
HIGH PLAINS. RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC FAVORS A NORTHWARD
ORIENTED STORM TRACK ACROSS ALASKA, WITH ABOVE (BELOW)-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES INCREASED OVER MUCH OF THE MAINLAND AND ALEUTIANS (SOUTHEAST
ALASKA). NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASED ACROSS
HAWAII CONSISTENT WITH A MORE NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE STATE
IN THE WAKE OF TROUGHING.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 40% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND
15% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN, OFFSET
BY DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST TOOLS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 21 - 27 2024
DURING WEEK-2, ANOMALOUS TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS, WITH RIDGING PREDICTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC, EXTENDING
NORTHWARD THROUGH ALASKA. WHILE THE 0Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES WEAKEN THIS
RIDGE LATER IN THE PERIOD, THE 0Z GEFS MAINTAINS A STRONGLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE
ACROSS ALASKA THROUGH THE END OF WEEK-2. THE WEEK-2 500-HPA MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND
DEPICTS BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS, WITH THE LARGEST
NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES (-60 METERS) OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER, AND NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF AT LEAST -30 METERS EXTENDING
TO THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST. NEAR- TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND ALONG THE WEST COAST, ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED FOR
MUCH OF ALASKA, EXCLUDING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WHERE UPSTREAM TROUGHING FAVORS
A TRANSITION TO BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS. BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS REMAIN FORECAST
ACROSS HAWAII.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS IS UNCERTAIN. INCREASED
TROUGHING WOULD SUPPORT INCREASED CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER, THE ECMWF REFORECAST TOOL CONTINUES TO INCREASE THE PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST, WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
GEFS REFORECAST TOOL OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM FAVORS A
MORE ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN, ALTHOUGH EPISODES OF PRECIPITATION ARE
LIKELY TO KEEP THE DAILY VARIABILITY OF TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN USUAL.
THEREFORE, A LARGE AREA OF NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
EAST, WITH ONLY PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST, NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA HAVING ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHERE
THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF REFORECAST TOOLS. THE
TROUGH FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS FAVORS INCREASED CHANCES OF
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS, AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ACROSS THE WEST,
PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED OVER MOST
AREAS DUE TO CONTINUED ENHANCED PACIFIC FLOW, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. THERE IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST WHERE THE REFORECAST (UNCALIBRATED) TOOLS FAVOR ENHANCED CHANCES
FOR ABOVE- (BELOW-) NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FORECAST ACROSS ALASKA GIVEN THE RIDGE PLACEMENT,
CONSISTENT WITH NEARLY ALL DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII DUE TO THE BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS.
THE TRANSITION TO MORE TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS RESULTS IN A BROAD
AREA OF ELEVATED NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ACROSS MOST
OF THE CONUS. THE STRONGEST SIGNALS ARE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY
EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC WHERE A
FRONT IS LIKELY TO SET-UP BECOMING A FOCAL POINT FOR EPISODES OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED ABOVE 50 PERCENT OVER SOME
OF THESE AREAS, WHERE THE UNCALIBRATED 0Z GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES DEPICT
UPWARDS OF 1.5 TO, IN SOME AREAS, 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION DURING WEEK-2. AS
IN THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK, RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FAVORS A NORTHWARD
ORIENTED STORM TRACK ACROSS ALASKA RESULTING IN ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE MAINLAND AND ALEUTIANS, AND
INCREASED CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII UNDERNEATH NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 40% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
CONTINUED GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
PATTERN, OFFSET BY DIFFERENCES IN THE TOOLS REGARDING THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
ACROSS THE CONUS.
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19730319 - 19990310 - 19570312 - 19900308 - 19870318
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19730319 - 19990313 - 19620324 - 19530318 - 19900307
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 19 - 23 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA N A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA B N IOWA N A MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B A NEW YORK N N
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 21 - 27 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON A A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO N A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH A A ARIZONA N A COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA B A IOWA N A MISSOURI N A
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL B B
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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