698
FXUS06 KWBC 141903
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU MARCH 14 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 20 - 24 2024
THERE IS GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA, WITH TROUGHING INITIALLY FAVORED OVER THE EAST, AND THEN
RELOADING OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. ANOMALOUS
RIDGING IS PREDICTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC EXTENDING THROUGH ALASKA. AN
ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM IS FORECAST WITH A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST, AND ANOTHER REACHING THE WEST COAST LATER IN THE PERIOD.
TODAY’S 500-HPA MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND INDICATES BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS FOR MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN CONUS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED
FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS. STRONGLY POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
DEPICTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND ALASKA UNDERNEATH AMPLIFIED RIDGING.
BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED ACROSS HAWAII AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHING
UNDERCUTS THE RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC.
THE EVOLVING MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN FAVORS INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS, AND EXTENDING INTO
PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST. THE LARGEST PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT) ARE HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THERE IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EAST, WHERE THE ECMWF REFORECAST
TOOL CONTINUES TO ELEVATE PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DESPITE
THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTIVE OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WHILE A
TILT TOWARD INCREASED CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FAVORED FOR THE
INTERIOR NORTHEAST, NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED ALONG THE NORTHEAST
COAST, AND EXTENDING FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OF THE COUNTRY. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, CONSISTENT WITH THE ECMWF AND GEFS REFORECAST
TOOLS. INCREASED PACIFIC FLOW AND WEAKER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES SUPPORT
INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WEST AND INTO
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOMALOUS RIDGING FAVORS HIGH
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MAINLAND ALASKA, WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW FAVORING INCREASED CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHEAST
ALASKA. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED ACROSS HAWAII DUE
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FAVORS INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER DURING THE PERIOD, WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM ACROSS FLORIDA AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN BRING MORE PRECIPITATION
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE GEFS REFORECAST TOOL
INDICATES ELEVATED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, AND GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE NORTHWARD
EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION, NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST AND OHIO VALLEY. ENHANCED PACIFIC FLOW ELEVATES ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS, WITH INCOMING
TROUGHING FURTHER ENHANCING CHANCES ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC FAVORS A NORTHWARD ORIENTED STORM TRACK
ACROSS ALASKA, WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES INCREASED OVER THE
WESTERN MAINLAND AND ALEUTIANS AND PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ELEVATED ACROSS THE EASTERN MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA UNDERNEATH ANOMALOUS
NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASED
ACROSS HAWAII CONSISTENT WITH A MORE NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
THE STATE IN THE WAKE OF TROUGHING.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 40% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN, OFFSET
BY DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST TOOLS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 22 - 28 2024
DURING WEEK-2, ANOMALOUS TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL CONUS, WITH RIDGING PREDICTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC,
EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH ALASKA. THE WEEK-2 500-HPA MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND
DEPICTS BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS, WITH THE LARGEST
NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES (-60 METERS) OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER, AND NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF AT LEAST -30 METERS EXTENDING
TO THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. ABOVE-NORMAL
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGHING
AND UNDERNEATH MORE SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. CLOSER TO NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE
DEPICTED NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS WITH ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS PERSISTING
OVER MUCH OF ALASKA, EXCLUDING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WHERE UPSTREAM TROUGHING
FAVORS A TRANSITION TO BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS. ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED
ACROSS HAWAII AS RIDGING BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGHING.
INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS, AND THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AS TROUGHING BUILDS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS. THERE IS A BIT MORE
UNCERTAINTY ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WHERE THE REFORECAST
(UNCALIBRATED) TOOLS FAVOR ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE- (BELOW-) NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, WHICH RESULTED IN A LARGE AREA OF NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY. THE MORE WESTWARD ORIENTED TROUGH
FAVORS INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND INTO THE NORTHEAST AND THIS CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF
REFORECAST TOOL, ALONG WITH THE STATISTICAL ANALOG GUIDANCE. HIGH PROBABILITIES
FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FORECAST ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA GIVEN THE
RIDGE PLACEMENT, CONSISTENT WITH NEARLY ALL DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.
UNCALIBRATED MODELS AS WELL AS ANALOG GUIDANCE FAVOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII SUPPORTED BY THE CONSOLIDATED FORECAST TOOL.
THE TRANSITION TO MORE TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS RESULTS IN A
BROAD AREA OF ELEVATED NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ACROSS
MOST OF THE CONUS. THE STRONGEST SIGNALS ARE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC, AND TENNESSEE VALLEY WHERE THE UNCALIBRATED 0Z GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLES DEPICT UPWARDS OF 1.5 TO, IN SOME AREAS, 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION
DURING WEEK-2 RELATED TO A POSSIBLE AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURFACE LOW
POTENTIALLY TRACKING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD.
WEAKENING RIDGING ACROSS ALASKA RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FAVORS SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA
AND THE ALEUTIANS, AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER
SOUTHEAST ALASKA. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII UNDERNEATH
NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
CONTINUED GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
PATTERN, OFFSET BY DIFFERENCES IN THE TOOLS REGARDING THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
ACROSS THE CONUS.
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19980227 - 19800324 - 19580308 - 19870318 - 19990310
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19980227 - 19800324 - 19870318 - 20000327 - 20090324
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 20 - 24 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA B A WYOMING N A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI N A
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B A OHIO B N KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN B N NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A B
AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL B B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 22 - 28 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO B A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH N A ARIZONA N A COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI N A
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL B B
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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