153
FXUS06 KWBC 151903
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI MARCH 15 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 21 - 25 2024
DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT TODAY ON THE POSITIONING OF THE MEAN
500-HPA HEIGHT FEATURES DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, ONE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN, AND A SECOND CENTERED OVER ALASKA WITH POSITIVE HEIGHTS SPREADING
TOWARDS THE NORTH POLE AND INTO THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC. IN SOUTHERN CANADA
AND THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST, WITH STRONGER NEGATIVE ANOMALIES ACROSS THE WEST
RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY. NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST FOR THE NORTHEAST, WHILE IN THE SOUTHEAST NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD REMAINS UNCERTAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CONUS WITH WEAK 500-HPA HEIGHTS FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER-48. THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THE CONUS RESIDES IN BELOW-NORMAL CHANCES EXCEEDING 60%
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. MEANWHILE, IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND RIO GRANDE
VALLEY ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED. IN THE WEST, THE PRIOR FORECAST
FAVORED ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE STRONGEST CHANCES IN THE GREAT
BASIN. TODAY HOWEVER DYNAMICAL MODEL TOOLS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
DEEPER NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE WEST TODAY RELATIVE TO
YESTERDAY, WHICH WOULD INDUCE MORE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MANY OF THE
DYNAMICAL REFORECAST TOOLS ARE MUCH COLDER TODAY RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY,
THEREFORE, NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INTRODUCED ALONG THE WEST
COAST WITH A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL IN PARTS OF UTAH CONSISTENT WITH
THE STRONGEST CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL IN THE REFORECAST TOOLS. IN THE EASTERN
CONUS, A LARGE SWATCH OF NEAR-NORMAL REMAINS FAVORED IN THIS REGION AS WELL.
TOOLS GENERALLY SUPPORT NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THIS REGION AND DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST MINIMIZING DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES,
SO NEAR-NORMAL IS FAVORED IN THE OFFICIAL OUTLOOK. IN ALASKA, STRONG POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES CENTERED ACROSS THE STATE ENHANCE CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE WESTERN MAINLAND WITH PROBABILITIES REDUCING
FURTHER EAST. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA WITH
CONTINENTAL FLOW INTO THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM FAVORS INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER DURING THE PERIOD, WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM ACROSS FLORIDA AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN BRING MORE PRECIPITATION
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE GEFS REFORECAST TOOL
INDICATES ELEVATED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, AND GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE NORTHWARD
EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION, ONLY A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND OHIO VALLEY. ENHANCED PACIFIC FLOW
ELEVATES ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CONUS, WITH THE ECMWF REFORECAST TOOL STRONGLY FAVORING INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.
RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC AND INTO ALASKA FAVORS A NORTHWARD
ORIENTED STORM TRACK ACROSS ALASKA, WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND COASTLINE AND ALEUTIANS AND
PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ELEVATED ACROSS THE EASTERN
MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA UNDERNEATH ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASED ACROSS HAWAII CONSISTENT WITH
A MORE NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE STATE IN THE WAKE OF
TROUGHING.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT-AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG ALL THE MODEL TOOLS FOR MUCH OF THE COUNTRY OFFSET BY THE
VERY PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE PATTERN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 23 - 29 2024
THE WEEK-2 HEIGHT FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD WITH
BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS BUT WITH POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHTS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHEAST. THE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHTS IN THE
NORTHEAST ARE STRONGER RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD AND THE PRIOR FORECAST.
NEVERTHELESS, THE FORECAST REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN FOR WEEK-2 WITH A FAIRLY
ACTIVE PATTERN DUE TO MID-LEVEL TROUGHING DEVELOPING AND PROGRESSING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CONUS ALONG WITH PACIFIC FLOW INTO THE WESTERN CONUS AND MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE, IN ALASKA, POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHTS
CONTINUED TO BE FAVORED ACROSS THE STATE ALTHOUGH WEAKER AND RETROGRADING
NORTHWEST RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
DURING WEEK-2 THE PERIOD AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE CONUS. THIS TROUGH IS FAVORED TO BRING COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
TO MUCH OF THE CONUS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT
LAKES, NORTHEAST, AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE STRONGEST PROBABILITIES
FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR THE STRONG POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
CENTER JUST NORTHEAST OF MAINE. A SECOND AREA OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED IN PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
PROGRESSION. IN ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED FOR THE
WESTERN MAINLAND AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. BELOW-NORMAL REMAINS SLIGHTLY FAVORED
FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA. IN HAWAII, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
CONSISTENT WITH THE AVAILABLE TOOLS.
THE TRANSITION TO MORE TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS RESULTS IN A
BROAD AREA OF ELEVATED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ACROSS MOST OF
THE CONUS. THE STRONGEST SIGNALS ARE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC WHERE THE UNCALIBRATED 0Z GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES DEPICT UPWARDS
OF 1.5 TO, IN SOME AREAS, 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION DURING WEEK-2 RELATED TO A
POSSIBLE AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. A SECOND AREA OF SURFACE LOW-PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD AND TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WEAKENING
RIDGING ACROSS ALASKA RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FAVORS NEAR-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL FOR THE ALEUTIANS, AND
INCREASED CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII UNDERNEATH NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIR
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL TOOLS ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN AND IN THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER TOOLS OFFSET BY THE CONTINUED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19950325 - 19870224 - 19800324 - 20000323 - 20000329
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19870223 - 20000328 - 20000323 - 19510315 - 19800324
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 21 - 25 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON N A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH N A ARIZONA N A COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI N A
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A B
AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL B B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 23 - 29 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL B B
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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