576
FXUS06 KWBC 191902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE MARCH 19 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 25 - 29 2024
DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY ON THE POSITIONING OF THE MEAN
500-HPA HEIGHT FEATURES DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, ONE CENTERED EAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
SPREADING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS), AND A SECOND CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WITH POSITIVE HEIGHTS SPREADING TOWARDS THE NORTH POLE AND
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. IN SOUTHWESTERN CANADA AND THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE CONUS NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST WITH BACK-TO-BACK
TROUGHS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE CONUS DURING THE PERIOD.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS EAST TO THE
UPPER- AND MIDDLE-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ALONG AND BEHIND THE
MEAN 500-HPA TROUGH AXIS. THE STRONGEST CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WITH CHANCES EXCEEDING 70%
ACROSS THIS REGION. MEANWHILE, EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER A COOLING TREND IS
BEING ESTABLISHED IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH NEAR-NORMAL CONDITIONS BEING FAVORED
FOR PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS RELATIVE TO
THE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST YESTERDAY FOR THESE AREAS. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FAVORED FOR THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC CLOSER TO THE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE-NORMAL AS
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE PERIOD AND THE RAW DYNAMICAL
TOOLS ARE COOLER RELATIVE TO THE REFORECAST AND SHORT TERM BIAS-CORRECTED
TOOLS. IN ALASKA, WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES FORECAST DURING THE
PERIOD, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STRONGLY FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE
MAINLAND, WHILE IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
SLIGHTLY FAVORED. FOR HAWAII, NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR THE STATE.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE
FORECAST IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES. IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, A DEEP TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA.
ADDITIONALLY, THE PRECIPITATION CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS REGION FOR LATE MARCH IS
RELATIVELY LOW, INCREASING CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO EXCEED NORMAL. AS
THIS TROUGH PROGRESSES INLAND, LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND
WILL TRACK INTO TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY
EXTEND TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. IN ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE MAINLAND WITH NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST IN
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA AS THE ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS MAY DISPLACE THE
STORM TRACK NORTHWARDS. IN HAWAII, NEAR- TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS FORECAST.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT-AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG ALL THE MODEL TOOLS FOR MUCH OF THE COUNTRY OFFSET BY THE
VERY PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE PATTERN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 27 - APR 02, 2024
THE WEEK-2 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST IS LESS CERTAIN THAN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
THE ENSEMBLE DYNAMICAL TOOL MEANS ARE LESS AMPLIFIED RELATIVE TO THE EARLIER
PERIOD WITH LESSER AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEIGHT ANOMALIES.
GENERALLY, THE TOOLS MAINTAIN AN AREA OF NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER
THE CONUS WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA
AND CANADA. HOWEVER, THE WEEKLY MEANS DON’T TELL THE WHOLE STORY DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD. AT THE ONSET OF THE
PERIOD, DEEP MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE CONUS
WITH STRONG POSITIVE MID-LEVEL ANOMALIES FORECAST FOR THE NORTHEAST. THE
NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND WEAKEN WHILE SHIFTING THE POSITIVE 500-HPA ANOMALIES OVER THE
NORTHEAST OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE, A SECOND AREA OF NEGATIVE ANOMALIES AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC;
HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE LESS AMPLIFIED RELATIVE TO
THE TROUGH EARLY IN THE PERIOD. IN ALASKA, POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AT
THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD ARE LIKELY TO BE DISPLACED BY NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES BY THE END OF WEEK-2. IN HAWAII, TOOLS ARE GENERALLY MIXED BUT LEAN
TOWARDS POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES DURING THE PERIOD.
IN WEEK-2 AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD, DISPLACING THE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD,
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES EXTEND EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO, TENNESSEE, AND
LOWER-MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST WHILE MAINTAINING
COVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. PROBABILITIES ARE SLIGHTLY REDUCED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD BUT CHANCES CONTINUE TO
EXCEED 50% FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THIS REGION. IN THE NORTHEAST,
PROBABILITIES EXCEED 50% FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. IN
ALASKA, WITH 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES RELAXING AND FORECAST TO TURN NEGATIVE BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD, THE STRONG CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FORECAST IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ARE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED AND FOCUSED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. IN HAWAII, NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY
FAVORED.
DURING WEEK-2, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS MOST LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE
COUNTRY, ALTHOUGH WITH WEAKER PROBABILITIES RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, AS
PACIFIC FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING MOIST AIR INTO THE CONUS. IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS, SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST DUE
TO CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER AND POTENTIAL FOR A SECOND AREA OF TROUGHING TO
MOVE ONSHORE DURING THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE, IN THE EAST A BAROCLINIC ZONE IS
LIKELY TO BECOME ESTABLISHED AS THE TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD. THIS SLIGHTLY
ENHANCES CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EAST COAST. IN PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR AREAS
DISPLACED FROM THE MAIN STORM TRACK. IN ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA ALONG WITH SOUTHEAST
ALASKA. AS THE STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE STATE BREAKS DOWN IT MAY ALLOW FOR
MORE PRECIPITATION TO WORK INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA. NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR WESTERN HAWAII WITH ABOVE-NORMAL SLIGHTLY FAVORED FURTHER EAST
CONSISTENT WITH THE BLEND OF TOOLS AND CONSOLIDATION TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIR
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL TOOLS ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN AND IN THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER TOOLS OFFSET BY THE CONTINUED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19920311 - 20050311 - 19660402 - 19940327 - 19790309
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19920311 - 20050310 - 19660401 - 19650308 - 20000330
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 25 - 29 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B N WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B N W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA N A OHIO A A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 27 - APR 02, 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N B W TEXAS N B
MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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