673
FXUS06 KWBC 201902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT WED MARCH 20 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 26 - 30 2024
DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY ON THE POSITIONING OF THE MEAN
500-HPA HEIGHT FEATURES DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THERE IS A BROAD AREA OF
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTENDING FROM ALASKA SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
MUCH OF CANADA AND OVER NEW ENGLAND. NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FAVORED OVER
MUCH OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS), WITH A WEAK TROUGH JUST OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST AND A STRONGER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS
ALONG AND BEHIND THE MEAN 500-HPA TROUGH AXIS. THE STRONGEST CHANCES FOR
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH CHANCES
EXCEEDING 70% ACROSS THIS REGION. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR
MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND UNDER POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES, AND MUCH OF FLORIDA TILTS TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES,
ALSO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE INDICATED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S, TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES BECOME ESTABLISHED LATE IN
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. IN ALASKA POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST
DURING THE PERIOD AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE
STATE WHILE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE NORTH SLOPE.
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE AUTOBLEND
AND ERF HAWAII CONSOLIDATION.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER
THE WEST COAST AND GREAT BASIN, AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TILT TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN ALASKA, CONSENSUS AMONG FORECAST
TOOLS FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE STATE, EXCEPT FOR THE
NORTH SLOPE WHERE NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY AND THE PANHANDLE,
WHICH TILTS TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION. NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED BY THE FORECAST TOOLS FOR HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT-AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG ALL THE MODEL TOOLS FOR MUCH OF THE COUNTRY OFFSET BY THE
VERY PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE PATTERN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 28 - APR 03, 2024
THE WEEK-2 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST IS LESS CERTAIN THAN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
THE ENSEMBLE DYNAMICAL TOOL MEANS ARE LESS AMPLIFIED RELATIVE TO THE EARLIER
PERIOD WITH LESSER AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEIGHT ANOMALIES.
GENERALLY, THE TOOLS MAINTAIN AN AREA OF NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER
THE CONUS WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA
AND CANADA. HOWEVER, THE WEEKLY MEANS DON’T TELL THE WHOLE STORY DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD, WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS
DEPICTING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS NORTH AMERICA.
IN WEEK-2 AS THE FIRST MID-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD DISPLACING THE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD,
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR THE OHIO, TENNESSEE, AND
LOWER-MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, WHILE THE AREA OF NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES INDICATED
DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD EXPANDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST, LEAVING ONLY
NEW ENGLAND TILTING TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS THE TROUGH EXITS THE
EASTERN CONUS RETURN FLOW IS FAVORED TO SET UP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF TEXAS.
CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS ARE SLIGHTLY
REDUCED RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD BUT CHANCES CONTINUE TO EXCEED 50% FOR
PORTIONS OF MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS. IN ALASKA, WITH 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
RELAXING AND FORECAST TO TURN NEGATIVE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, THE STRONG
CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED AND FOCUSED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND. NEAR- TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. IN
HAWAII, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED BY THE HAWAII CON TOOL.
DURING WEEK-2, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS MOST LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE
COUNTRY, ALTHOUGH WITH WEAKER PROBABILITIES RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, AS
PACIFIC FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING MOIST AIR INTO THE CONUS THAT QUICKLY-MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CAN TAP INTO. SIMILAR TO THE EARLY PERIOD, THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES (>50%) ARE FOCUSED OVER CALIFORNIA, AND ENHANCED PROBABILITIES
EXTEND ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO INDICATED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHEAST U.S. WHERE NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE THE LARGEST.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE TENDING TOWARDS A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE MOST ACTIVE
WEATHER DURING WEEK-2, RESULTING IN A TILT TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS. THE WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
FOR ALASKA IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 PERIOD, WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE STATE, AND NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION MOST LIKELY FOR
THE NORTH SLOPE AND THE PANHANDLE. HAWAII ALSO HAS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEEK-2
OUTLOOK, WITH NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION INDICATED FOR THE STATE.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIR
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL TOOLS ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN AND IN THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER TOOLS OFFSET BY THE CONTINUED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
FORECASTER: DANIEL BARANDIARAN
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
- - - -
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20050311 - 19660402 - 19650311 - 19920313 - 19700327
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 26 - 30 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B N
N TEXAS B B S TEXAS B B W TEXAS B B
MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA N A OHIO A A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 28 - APR 03, 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA N N
N TEXAS N N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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