650
FXUS06 KWBC 211941
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU MARCH 21 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 27 - 31 2024
DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE
LARGE-SCALE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. A BROAD
WEAK TROUGH IS PREDICTED OVER THE ALEUTIANS WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OVER THE MAINLAND, AS A TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD AND AMPLIFIES OVER
SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA DURING THE PERIOD. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTEND
FROM ALASKA EASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF CANADA TO NEW ENGLAND. NEGATIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER MUCH OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) IN THE
MEAN 6-10 DAY PERIOD FORECAST, WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH NEAR THE PACIFIC
COAST AND A WEAKER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. DAILY MODEL FORECASTS SHOW A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS, WHILE A TROUGH
AMPLIFIES NEAR THE WEST COAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS
UNDER MEAN NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH PROBABILITIES
EXCEEDING 70 PERCENT. THE AREA OF FAVORED BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPANDS
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN TODAY’S FORECAST, RELATIVE TO
YESTERDAY’S FORECAST, AS THE PREDICTED TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE PREDICTED
TROUGH AND UNDER POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE REDUCED IN THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION IN TODAY’S FORECAST.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF ALASKA,
INCLUDING THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AHEAD OF THE TROUGH UNDER
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, WHILE BELOW-NORMAL IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR
THE NORTH SLOPE. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS OF HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION
TOOL.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CONUS AND THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST AND THE
GREAT BASIN, AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED BEHIND THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A CONSENSUS
AMONG FORECAST TOOLS FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF ALASKA,
EXCEPT FOR THE NORTH SLOPE AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, WHERE NEAR-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED. NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED BY THE
CONSOLIDATION TOOL FOR HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF
TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST PATTERN OFFSET BY THE PROGRESSIVE CIRCULATION
PATTERN AND SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 29 - APR 04, 2024
THE WEEK-2 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST IS LESS CERTAIN THAN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD
WITH DIFFERENCES AMONG ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS AMONG THE GEFS, ECMWF AND
CANADIAN MODELS, AND THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS.
DIFFERENCES AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LEADS TO LESS AMPLIFIED ANOMALIES AND
GREATER UNCERTAINTY. GENERALLY, MODEL FORECASTS MAINTAIN AN AREA OF NEGATIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE CONUS WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ACROSS MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND CANADA. NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
EXTEND FURTHER FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS IN THE MANUAL BLEND
OF MODEL FORECASTS RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY, WHILE A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST IN
YESTERDAY’S MANUAL BLENDS HAS MOVED OFFSHORE.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS, UNDER THE PREDICTED TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES. THERE IS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND NORTHEAST RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY,
SUPPORTED BY REFORECAST-CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE FORECASTS, AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RISE IN THE MEAN FOR THE PERIOD. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR
SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE NORTH SLOPE OF ALASKA,
SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS REFORECAST TOOL.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS STILL SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR MOST OF ALASKA,
OUTSIDE THE NORTH SLOPE, UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE
CONUS, WITH GREATER ENHANCEMENT OF PROBABILITIES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND
SOUTHEAST, WITH THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND SUPPORTED BY MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL
FORECAST TOOLS. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR SOUTHERN
TEXAS, SUPPORTED BY THE CONSOLIDATION TOOL. NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR HAWAII, AS IN THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 5% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
FAIR AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FORECAST AND TOOLS, OFFSET BY
THE CONTINUED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
APRIL 18.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20020321 - 19660404 - 20050311 - 19960301 - 19840309
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
- - - -
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 27 - 31 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B B
N TEXAS B B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS B N
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 29 - APR 04, 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS N N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS N N
MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI N A
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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