505
FXUS06 KWBC 221912
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI MARCH 22 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 28 - APR 01, 2024
DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE-SCALE MEAN 500-HPA
HEIGHT PATTERN DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. A BROAD WEAK TROUGH IS PREDICTED
OVER THE ALEUTIANS WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE MAINLAND, AS
A TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA DURING THE PERIOD.
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTEND FROM ALASKA EASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF
CANADA. NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER MUCH OF THE
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) IN THE MEAN 6-10 DAY PERIOD FORECAST, WITH A MORE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE WEST AND A WEAKER TROUGH OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
DAILY MODEL FORECASTS SHOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THESE TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ACROSS THE CONUS, FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND FROM THE
EASTERN CONUS INTO THE ATLANTIC, DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
CENTRAL CONUS UNDER MEAN NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED OVER PARTS OF TEXAS AND NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS, WHERE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE WEAK UNDER A TRANSIENT PATTERN. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST UNDER ANOMALOUS MEAN SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE PREDICTED TROUGH. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS
MOST OF ALASKA, INCLUDING THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH AND UNDER POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, WHILE NEAR-NORMAL IS
FAVORED FOR THE NORTH SLOPE. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR
THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS OF HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE
CONSOLIDATION TOOL.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS DURING THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER
CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, AHEAD OF THE PREDICTED
TROUGH. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN SOUTH TEXAS CONSISTENT WITH
THE CONSOLIDATION TOOL. A CONSENSUS AMONG FORECAST TOOLS FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF ALASKA, EXCEPT FOR THE NORTH SLOPE, UNDER SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR
SOUTHEASTERN ISLANDS OF HAWAII BY THE CONSOLIDATION TOOL.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF
TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT-AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST PATTERN OFFSET BY THE PROGRESSIVE CIRCULATION
PATTERN AND SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 30 - APR 05, 2024
THE WEEK-2 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST IS LESS CERTAIN THAN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD
FORECAST WITH GREATER DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GEFS, ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE
MEANS, WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. DIFFERENCES AMONG
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LEADS TO LESS AMPLIFIED ANOMALIES IN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.
GENERALLY, MODEL FORECASTS MAINTAIN AN AREA OF NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OVER THE CONUS WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS MUCH OF
ALASKA AND NORTHERN CANADA. NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTEND FROM THE
WEST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS IN THE MANUAL BLEND OF MODEL FORECASTS, WHILE A
TROUGH OVER THE EAST HAS PROGRESSED OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
CONUS, UNDER PREDICTED NEGATIVE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR A GREATER AREA OF THE NORTHEAST RELATIVE TO THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD, SUPPORTED BY REFORECAST-CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE FORECASTS, AS
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE DURING THE PERIOD. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
FOR MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES. NEAR-TO-BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR NORTHWESTERN
ALASKA, SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS REFORECAST TOOL.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS STILL SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR MOST OF ALASKA,
OUTSIDE THE NORTH SLOPE, UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE
CONUS, WITH GREATER ENHANCEMENT OF PROBABILITIES OVER THE SOUTHWEST, WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND SUPPORTED BY MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECAST TOOLS. BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR SOUTHERN TEXAS, SUPPORTED BY THE
CONSOLIDATION TOOL. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR HAWAII,
AS IN THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 5% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
FAIR AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FORECAST AND TOOLS, OFFSET BY
THE CONTINUED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE PHASE OF
SHORTWAVE FEATURES.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
APRIL 18.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20020321 - 19660405 - 19960302 - 19700328 - 19690328
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20020322 - 19960301 - 19690328 - 19660404 - 19700328
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 28 - APR 01, 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS N N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI N A
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 30 - APR 05, 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON B N NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS B N
MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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