406
FXUS06 KWBC 251916
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT MON MARCH 25 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 31 - APR 04, 2024
DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL LARGE-SCALE MEAN
500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD,
TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER
WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA EXTENDING INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC, NEAR THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST, AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND NEAR NOVA SCOTIA, BY THE
GEFS, ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED BY EACH MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS, NEAR THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA, AND OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. MODELS PREDICT A PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN. THE RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD PROGRESSES EASTWARD OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA, WHILE THE PREDICTED TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A TROUGH IS PREDICTED TO
PROGRESS ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE MIDWEST
DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL BLEND OF MODEL FORECASTS FOR THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD PREDICTS POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS, SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS. AMPLIFIED NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS, WHILE WEAK POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS UNDER A
PREDICTED RIDGE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE ALASKA PENINSULA
AND WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA UNDER A PREDICTED TROUGH EARLY IN THE PERIOD, WHILE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR INTERIOR NORTHEASTERN ALASKA AND THE
ALASKA PANHANDLE UNDER ANOMALOUS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UNDER MEAN POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR
PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS UNDER THE PREDICTED TROUGH. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS FROM MONTANA TO
NEW ENGLAND, UNDER ANOMALOUS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST, UNDER A POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALY AND CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE
CONSOLIDATION.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA, AHEAD OF A
PREDICTED TROUGH. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, UNDER POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS VERY LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH. WEAK PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE PREDICTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS
CONSISTENT WITH MOST MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS AND A PROGRESSIVE CIRCULATION
PATTERN. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE
PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION OF REFORECAST-CALIBRATED MODEL PRECIPITATION.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED CIRCULATION PATTERN, OFFSET BY THE PROGRESSIVE
CIRCULATION PATTERN AND SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 02 - 08 2024
THE WEEK-2 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST IS LESS CERTAIN THAN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD
FORECAST WITH GREATER DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GEFS, ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE
MEANS, AS A RESULT OF UNCERTAINTY IN EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE CIRCULATION
PATTERN. TODAY’S 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS GIVEN GREATER WEIGHT IN THE MANUAL
BLEND THAN THE GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS, FOR CONSISTENCY WITH GREATER
WEIGHTING OF THE ECMWF IN THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION TOOLS
THAT INDICATE RECENT MODEL SKILL. THE MANUAL BLEND OF MODEL 500-HPA HEIGHT
FORECASTS PREDICTS A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND ALASKA,
IN THE WEEK-2 MEAN, AND A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH
ATLANTIC. SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE HEIGHTS AND BROAD WEAK TROUGHING IS INDICATED
OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS IN THE WEEK-2 MANUAL BLEND.
THE PROGRESSIVE CIRCULATION PATTERN AND DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODEL TEMPERATURE
TOOLS LEADS TO A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, UNDER A MEAN
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED IN THE
OUTLOOK FOR MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WITH SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG MODEL TEMPERATURE TOOLS, GIVEN THE VARIABLE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
PATTERN. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR NORTHEASTERN
MAINLAND ALASKA, WHERE MOST TOOLS ARE CONSISTENT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
REMAIN FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, UNDER A PREDICTED TROUGH AT THE
START OF THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST, UNDER WEAK POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD AND CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR NORTHERN MAINE CONSISTENT WITH
MOST MODEL TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR THE PERIOD. UNDER A PROGRESSIVE
CIRCULATION PATTERN AND WITH HIGHLY VARIABLE TEMPERATURES FORECAST DURING THE
PERIOD, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS FOR THE
WEEK-2 PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH
THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS ALASKA IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD,
CONSISTENT WITH MOST MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE CONUS IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD.
HOWEVER, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS
EXCLUDING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC, SUPPORTED BY
REFORECAST-CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MODELS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE
PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, WITH
ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL WEEK-2 MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FORECASTS,
ALONG WITH SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODEL TOOLS FOR PRECIPITATION AND
TEMPERATURE.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
APRIL 18.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19700328 - 19760306 - 19750309 - 19560312 - 19680403
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19680402 - 19700328 - 19760305 - 19630305 - 19750310
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 31 - APR 04, 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO A A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA N N E MONTANA B A WYOMING N A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA B A IOWA N A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 02 - 08 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON N N NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO N A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N N
N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N N
MINNESOTA N N IOWA N N MISSOURI N N
ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N N
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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