987
FXUS06 KWBC 291902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI MARCH 29 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 04 - 08 2024
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED AMPLIFIED
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN MODELS DUE TO RECENT MODEL
SKILL. THE RESULTANT MANUAL BLEND FEATURES A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED NEAR
GREENLAND EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). TO THE
SOUTH, A STRONG TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH AN ELONGATED
STRETCH OF SUBNORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. ANOTHER DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
MEANWHILE, A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED IN THE NORTH PACIFIC,
WITH ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA, WHILE AN
ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST FARTHER NORTHWEST. BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA
HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED ACROSS HAWAII AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHING UNDERCUTS THE
RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC.
NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. ENHANCED
CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TOOLS. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS, EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WHERE ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED, CONSISTENT WITH THE GEFS AND ECMWF PRECIPITATION
REFORECAST CONSOLIDATION TOOLS. FOR ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA UNDER ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS, WHILE
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER NORTHWESTERN ALASKA DUE BELOW-NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE
PROBABILITIES ARE PREDICTED ACROSS HAWAII UNDERNEATH WEAK TROUGHING AND
NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES.
NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED IN MOST OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS DUE TO THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. IN CONTRAST, DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER IS FAVORED
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE STORM
DEPARTING THE EAST COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD. FOR ALASKA, ALL SOLUTIONS SHOW AN
ANOMALOUSLY SHARP GRADIENT IN 500-HPA HEIGHTS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE
STATE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOMEWHAT MORE STORMINESS THAN NORMAL AND
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE STATE. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE INCREASED ACROSS HAWAII DUE TO A TROUGH ACROSS THE STATE, CONSISTENT WITH
THE HAWAII CON.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 40% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS AND FORECAST TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 06 - 12 2024
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY PERSISTENT
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND THE
SURROUNDING REGIONS. THE WEEK-2 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE OVERALL, WITH SOME FEATURES STAGNATING FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE
MOVING DOWNSTREAM AND WEAKENING. THE GEFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A RIDGE WITH ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS,
WHILE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
PREDICTED OVER THE WESTERN CONUSDURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. AT HIGHER LATITUDES,
ANOMALOUS RIDGING NEAR THE DAVIS STRAIT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD
AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANOMALOUS TROUGHING WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHT IS FORECAST OVER ALASKA. A WEAK TROUGH WITH WEAK BELOW-NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE STILL PREDICTED OVER HAWAII.
A MEAN MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE EASTERN CONUS FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING
80 PERCENT OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND
ADJACENT AREAS, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS.
THE MEAN MID-LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS FAVORS INCREASED
CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. ENHANCED CHANCES
FOR SUBNORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 60 PERCENT OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS ALASKA UNDER TROUGHING AND
BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS
HAWAII DUE TO THE BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS.
NEAR AND DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MEAN MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST ARE
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO COVER A LARGE AREA
FROM THE WESTERN (EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WHERE BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED) AND CENTRAL CONUS EASTWARD TO THE APPALACHAINS.
FARTHER EAST, NEAR THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORED IN THE PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE NORTHEAST.
TROUGHING OVER ALASKA FAVORS ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ACROSS HAWAII UNDERNEATH A WEAK TROUGH, SUPPORTED BY THE
CONSOLIDATION PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOL.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S GFS
SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS AND FORECAST TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TOOLS.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
APRIL 18.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19570314 - 20060310 - 19530406 - 19530322 - 19580310
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19570314 - 20060309 - 19520308 - 19530321 - 19580309
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 04 - 08 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B N OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A B OHIO N B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK N B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B
MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS B B
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 06 - 12 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B N OREGON B N NRN CALIF B N
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B N NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B
MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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