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FXUS06 KWBC 011903
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT MON APRIL 01 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 07 - 11 2024
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED AMPLIFIED
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GEFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN MODELS DUE TO RECENT MODEL
SKILL. THE RESULTANT MANUAL BLEND FEATURES A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED NEAR HUDSON
BAY EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN-CENTRAL CONUS. MEANWHILE, A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED IN THE NORTH PACIFIC, WHILE AN ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL
TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER ALASKA. BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED
ACROSS HAWAII AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHING UNDERCUTS THE RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC.
NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE
WESTERN-CENTRAL CONUS FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CONUS. ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED OVER MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA, WHERE
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER
ALASKA DUE TO BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS AND A TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE
STATE. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII
UNDERNEATH WEAK TROUGHING AND NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES.
DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER IS FAVORED OVER OREGON, SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO, NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA, AND NORTHERN NEVADA, AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO LIKELY ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
DUE TO RIDGING PREDICTED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. IN CONTRAST, NEAR- TO
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE CONUS DUE TO THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD, AND SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION
FORECAST TOOLS. FOR ALASKA, MORE STORMINESS THAN NORMAL AND ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED OVER THE STATE DUE TO A TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE
STATE. NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASED ACROSS HAWAII
DUE TO A TROUGH ACROSS THE STATE, AND CONSISTENT WITH THE HAWAII CON.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS AND FORECAST TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 09 - 15 2024
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND THE
SURROUNDING REGIONS. THE WEEK-2 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE OVERALL, WITH SOME FEATURES STAGNATING FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE
MOVING DOWNSTREAM AND WEAKENING. THE GEFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A RIDGE WITH ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS,
WHILE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
PREDICTED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. AT HIGHER
LATITUDES, ANOMALOUS RIDGING NEAR THE DAVIS STRAIT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT
SOUTHWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANOMALOUS TROUGHING IS FORECAST OVER
EASTERN ALASKA. A WEAK TROUGH WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE
STILL PREDICTED OVER HAWAII.
THE MEAN MID-LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FAVORS INCREASED
CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS, WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 80 PERCENT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND
ADJACENT AREAS, CONSISTENT WITH THE GEFS AND ECMWF CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE
REFORECAST TOOLS. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS ALASKA UNDER
TROUGHING AND BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
LIKELY OVER HAWAII DUE TO THE BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS, AND SUPPORTED BY
THE CONSOLIDATION TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOL.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS UNDER
RIDGING AND ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. NEAR AND DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MEAN
MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND UNDER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH MEAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ARE ENHANCED
CHANCES FOR NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS, EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA, WHERE BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED. TROUGHING OVER ALASKA FAVORS ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ACROSS KAUAI AND OAHU, WHILE BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS FAVORED OVER MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND, CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION
PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOL.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS AND FORECAST TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TOOLS.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
APRIL 18.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19570317 - 19770317 - 19800321 - 20060318 - 20010402
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19800322 - 19780410 - 19700414 - 19770317 - 19750328
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 07 - 11 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B N OREGON B B NRN CALIF B B
SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B N NEVADA B B
W MONTANA B N E MONTANA A A WYOMING B A
UTAH B N ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A N KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 09 - 15 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA N A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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