487
FXUS06 KWBC 021902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE APRIL 02 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 08 - 12 2024
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED AMPLIFIED
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GEFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN MODELS DUE TO RECENT MODEL
SKILL. THE RESULTANT MANUAL BLEND FEATURES A RIDGE CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, WHILE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BE
LOCATED IN THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. A DEEP ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECAST OVER ALASKA. BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED ACROSS HAWAII.
NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED OVER THE
REMAINDER OF CONUS, EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA, WHERE SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TOOLS. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER ALASKA DUE
TO BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS AND A TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE STATE.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII UNDERNEATH
WEAK TROUGHING AND NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES.
DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER IS FAVORED OVER MUCH OF TH WESTERN CONUS EXTENDING
EASTWARD TO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS, AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. IN CONTRAST, NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE
INCREASED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS DUE TO SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH MEAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, AND
SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. FOR ALASKA,
MORE STORMINESS THAN NORMAL AND ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE DUE TO A PREDICTED TROUGH, WHILE BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN STATE, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
INCREASED ACROSS HAWAII DUE TO A TROUGH ACROSS THE STATE, AND CONSISTENT WITH
THE HAWAII CON.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 40% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS AND FORECAST TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 10 - 16 2024
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. THE WEEK-2 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE OVERALL, WITH SOME FEATURES STAGNATING
FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE MOVING DOWNSTREAM AND WEAKENING. THE GEFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, WHILE A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH IS PREDICTED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. AT
HIGHER LATITUDES, ANOMALOUS RIDGING NEAR THE DAVIS STRAIT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD. ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS WHERE WEAK
NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST. WEAK ANOMALOUS TROUGHING IS
FORECAST OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA. A WEAK TROUGH WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA
HEIGHTS ARE STILL PREDICTED OVER HAWAII.
THE MEAN MID-LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS FAVORS INCREASED
CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS,
CONSISTENT WITH THE GEFS AND ECMWF CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE REFORECAST TOOLS.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA, WHILE
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED IN EASTERN ALASKA, AND SUPPORTED BY MOST
OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY OVER HAWAII DUE TO THE BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS, AND SUPPORTED BY
THE CONSOLIDATION TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOL.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS EXTENDING
EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, UNDER RIDGING
AND ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. NEAR AND DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MEAN MID-LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS AND UNDER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH MEAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS ARE
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS. TROUGHING OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA FAVORS ENHANCED PROBABILITIES
FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATE. BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT
WITH THE CONSOLIDATION PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOL.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S GFS
SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS AND FORECAST TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TOOLS.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
APRIL 18.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20060319 - 19620316 - 19570319 - 19780410 - 19790409
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19990412 - 19550318 - 20000329 - 19790408 - 19620315
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 08 - 12 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF N B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH N B ARIZONA B A COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 10 - 16 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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