333  
FXUS06 KWBC 031902  
PMDMRD  
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS  
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD  
300 PM EDT WED APRIL 03 2024  
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 09 - 13 2024  
 
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED AMPLIFIED  
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING  
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE  
ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GEFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN MODELS DUE TO RECENT MODEL  
SKILL. THE RESULTANT MANUAL BLEND FEATURES A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS  
U.S. (CONUS), WHILE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL  
CONUS. ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS EXCEPT  
FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, WHERE WEAK NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE  
FORECAST. AN ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER ALASKA. BELOW-NORMAL  
500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED ACROSS HAWAII.  
 
NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE  
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF NEW MEXICO AND  
WESTERN TEXAS. ENHANCED CHANCES FOR NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE  
PREDICTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF CONUS, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL  
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER  
ALASKA DUE TO BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS AND A TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE  
STATE. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII  
UNDERNEATH WEAK TROUGHING AND NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES.  
 
DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER IS FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS EXTENDING  
EASTWARD TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN EARLY  
IN THE PERIOD. IN CONTRAST, NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES  
ARE INCREASED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS DUE TO SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW  
ASSOCIATED WITH MEAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND THE MID-LEVEL  
TROUGH EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, AND  
SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. FOR ALASKA,  
MORE STORMINESS THAN NORMAL AND ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED OVER THE  
EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE DUE TO A PREDICTED TROUGH, WHILE BELOW-NORMAL  
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN STATE, AND SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE  
DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE  
INCREASED ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE HAWAII CON.  
 
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS  
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED  
ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30%  
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO  
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS AND FORECAST TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION  
TOOLS.  
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 11 - 17 2024  
 
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT  
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH  
AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. THE WEEK-2 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST IS  
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE OVERALL, WITH SOME FEATURES STAGNATING  
FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE MOVING DOWNSTREAM AND WEAKENING. THE GEFS AND ECMWF ARE  
IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS DURING THE WEEK-2  
PERIOD. ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS. WEAK  
ANOMALOUS TROUGHING IS FORECAST OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA. A WEAK TROUGH WITH  
SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE STILL PREDICTED OVER HAWAII.  
 
SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS.  
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS, WITH THE  
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 70 PERCENT OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN OREGON,  
NORTHEASTERN NEVADA, SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO, AND WESTERN UTAH, DUE TO THE  
ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHT. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA, WHILE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY  
OVER EASTERN ALASKA. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER HAWAII DUE TO  
THE BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS, AND SUPPORTED BY THE CONSOLIDATION  
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOL.  
 
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED OVER WASHINGTON,  
OREGON, NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH  
THE GEFS AND ECMWF PRECIPITATION REFORECAST CONSOLIDATION TOOLS. NEAR- TO  
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS, UNDER  
RIDGING AND ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. TROUGHING OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA FAVORS  
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN  
PORTIONS OF THE STATE, WHILE BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OVER PARTS  
OF WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE  
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION  
PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOL.  
 
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S GFS  
SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON  
DAY 11  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO  
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS AND FORECAST TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION  
TOOLS.  
 
FORECASTER: LUKE H  
 
NOTES:  
 
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL  
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN  
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.  
 
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS  
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW  
 
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,  
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE  
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE  
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.  
 
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,  
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES  
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE  
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.  
 
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A  
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL  
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES  
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO  
PRECIPITATION.  
 
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN  
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.  
 
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON  
APRIL 18.  
 
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)  
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE  
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:  
20060319 - 20010317 - 19860413 - 20090403 - 19780410  
 
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)  
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE  
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:  
20010317 - 19790411 - 20060320 - 20080411 - 19990412  
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE  
OUTLOOK FOR APR 09 - 13 2024  
 
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN  
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B  
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B  
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B  
UTAH A B ARIZONA A A COLORADO N A  
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B  
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A  
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS B A  
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A A MISSOURI A A  
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A  
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A  
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A  
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A  
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A  
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A  
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A  
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A  
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A  
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B B  
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B A  
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A  
 
 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE  
OUTLOOK FOR APR 11 - 17 2024  
 
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN  
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A N  
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N  
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B  
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N  
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B  
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A N  
N TEXAS N N S TEXAS B A W TEXAS A A  
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B  
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN A B  
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A N  
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N  
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A  
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A  
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A  
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A  
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A  
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A  
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N  
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A N  
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A  
 
LEGEND  
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN  
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN  
B - BELOW B - BELOW  
 
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL  
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE  
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS  
PMDMRD.  
 

 
 
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