796
FXUS06 KWBC 041903
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU APRIL 04 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 10 - 14 2024
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED AMPLIFIED
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CANADIAN MODELS DUE TO RECENT MODEL
SKILL. THE RESULTANT MANUAL BLEND FEATURES A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS
U.S. (CONUS) AND STRONG POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, WHILE A WEAK
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND NEAR-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER THE
EAST-CENTRAL CONUS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN THE EASTERN CONUS SLIGHTLY POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHTS RESULTS IN A LARGELY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. AN ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL
TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER ALASKA WITH BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS STRETCHING
THROUGH HAWAII.
NEAR NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS AND MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CONUS FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
WESTERN TEXAS. ELSEWHERE IN THE CONUS, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED.
THE STRONGEST CHANCES ARE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH CHANCES EXCEEDING 70%
ACROSS PARTS OF CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT BASIN UNDER STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING.
STRONG PROBABILITIES (>60%) EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN
ALONG MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TOOLS FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SLIGHTLY REDUCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL ARE
FAVORED IN THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE
THERE IS MORE DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE TOOLS AS AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSES NORTHEASTWARD EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER ALASKA DUE TO BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS AND A
TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE STATE. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE
FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII UNDERNEATH WEAK TROUGHING AND NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES.
DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER IS FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS EXTENDING
EASTWARD TO PARTS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AS A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS IN EARLY IN THE PERIOD. IN CONTRAST, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS DUE TO SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH MEAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION TOOLS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. FOR ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MAINLAND AND INTO
SOUTHEAST ALASKA DUE TO A PREDICTED TROUGH, WHILE BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST OVER THE NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASED
ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE HAWAII CONSOLIDATION AND WEAK TROUGHING OVER
THE STATE.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE-AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODEL TOOLS AND MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERNS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 12 - 18 2024
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF
THE MID-LEVEL 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY PATTERN ARE FORECAST BETWEEN THE GEFS AND
ECENS. THE ECENS MAINTAINS A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WHILE
THE GEFS BRINGS A STRONGER TROUGH INTO THE WEST COAST. SIMILARLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS, THE ECENS MAINTAINS A STRONGER NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES WHILE THE GEFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE BRINGING HIGHER HEIGHTS INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULTANT MANUAL BLEND FEATURES A TROUGH THAT IS FURTHER WEST
RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND MORE TROUGHING IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS. WITH WEAK RIDGING FAVORED ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY.
IN ALASKA, NEAR-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY FAVORED WITH A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. IN HAWAII, BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE
FAVORED.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS, WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 70 PERCENT OVER PARTS OF UTAH AND NEVADA DUE TO
ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. THERE ARE WEAKER CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO MORE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE PLACEMENT OF
BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALASKA,
WHILE NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER HAWAII SUPPORTED BY THE CONSOLIDATION
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOL.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
THE GULF COAST DURING WEEK-2 SUPPORTED BY THE REFORECAST AND RAW DYNAMICAL
MODEL TOOLS. AS AN AREA OF LOW-PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST,
LINGERING CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAIN IN NEW ENGLAND, BUT
NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS, BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED WITH MEAN MID-LEVEL
RIDGING FORECAST. ALONG THE WEST COAST, NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ONCE AGAIN
FAVORED DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN AND
PLACEMENT OF A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS ALASKA WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGHING BRINGING
ONSHORE FLOW INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND LOW CLIMATOLOGICAL PRECIPITATION
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE STATE. IN HAWAII, NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE BUT THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT FOR BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FURTHER WEST AND A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL IS FAVORED
FOR KAUAI.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW-AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, POOR
AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN REDUCES CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
APRIL 18.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20090404 - 19860413 - 19790415 - 20010331 - 20060318
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20090404 - 19860411 - 19790414 - 20010318 - 20060320
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 10 - 14 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 12 - 18 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A A
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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