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FXUS06 KWBC 051903
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI APRIL 05 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 11 - 15 2024
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED AMPLIFIED
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CANADIAN MODELS DUE TO RECENT MODEL
SKILL. THE RESULTANT MANUAL BLEND FEATURES A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS
U.S. (CONUS) AND STRONG POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, WHILE A WEAK
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND NEAR-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER THE
EAST-CENTRAL CONUS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN THE EASTERN CONUS SLIGHTLY POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHTS RESULTS IN A LARGELY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS
ARE FAVORED FOR ALASKA WHILE STRONG NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
FAVORED NORTH OF HAWAII.
NEAR-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS AND MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CONUS FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
ELSEWHERE IN THE CONUS, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED. THE STRONGEST
CHANCES ARE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH CHANCES EXCEEDING 80% ACROSS PARTS OF
CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT BASIN UNDER STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING. STRONG
PROBABILITIES (>60%) EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. PROBABILITIES
FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY REDUCED RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH CONTINUED WETTER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS AND REDUCED
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. FURTHER REDUCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL ARE
FAVORED IN THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE THERE
IS MORE DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE TOOLS AS AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE PROGRESSES NORTHEASTWARD EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA DUE TO NEAR-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS
WHILE FURTHER NORTH NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED AS POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES TRY TO BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED. BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII UNDERNEATH WEAK TROUGHING
AND NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES.
DRIER-THAN-NORMAL WEATHER IS FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS EXTENDING
EASTWARD TO PARTS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AS A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS IN EARLY IN THE PERIOD. IN CONTRAST, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS DUE TO SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH MEAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION TOOLS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. FOR ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MAINLAND AND INTO
SOUTHEAST ALASKA DUE TO A PREDICTED TROUGH, WHILE NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN MAINLAND SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASED
ACROSS MOST OF HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE HAWAII CONSOLIDATION AND WEAK
TROUGHING OVER THE STATE.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE-AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODEL TOOLS AND MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERNS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 13 - 19 2024
THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL FORECAST TOOLS TODAY FOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN. THE GEFS IS SLOWER AND WEAKER IN
BRINGING ANY TROUGHING INTO THE WEST COAST. HOWEVER, THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD, A WEAK TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE WEST
COAST. NEVERTHELESS, THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND MAINTAINS WEAKLY POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD.
WEAK RIDGING IS FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. IN NEW ENGLAND,
NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FAVORED WITH AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL TROUGHING FORECAST
FOR NORTHERN QUEBEC THAT MAY INTERACT WITH THE REGION. IN ALASKA, POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE GENERALLY FAVORED WITH GENERALLY WEAK MID-LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE STATE. IN HAWAII, BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FAVORED.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS, WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 70 PERCENT OVER PARTS OF UTAH AND NEVADA DUE TO
ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. THERE ARE WEAKER CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO MORE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE PLACEMENT OF
BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS.
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALASKA WHERE
REFORECAST (WARMER) AND SHORT-TERM BIAS-CORRECTED (COOLER) TOOLS ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT, WHILE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
OF MAINLAND ALASKA. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER HAWAII SUPPORTED
BY THE CONSOLIDATION TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOL.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
THE GULF COAST DURING WEEK-2 SUPPORTED BY THE REFORECAST AND RAW DYNAMICAL
MODEL TOOLS. ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AND THE OHIO,
TENNESSEE, AND MIDDLE-MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES LIKELY. NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CONUS WITH WEAK SIGNALS AMONG THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL TOOLS AND VERY WEAK POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. ALONG THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST, A SMALL AREA OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
SLIGHTLY FAVORED DUE TO A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION BY THE END OF WEEK-2. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT CLIMATOLOGICAL
RAINFALL IS RAPIDLY FALLING DURING APRIL IN THIS REGION AND A SMALL AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION COULD BRING PRECIPITATION ABOVE-NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. NEAR- TO
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS ALASKA WITH WEAKLY ONSHORE FLOW
AND LOW CLIMATOLOGICAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. IN HAWAII,
NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE BUT THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FURTHER WEST AND A SLIGHT TILT
TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL IS FAVORED FOR KAUAI AND ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
SLIGHTLY FAVORED OVER THE BIG ISLAND.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, FAIR
AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN OFFSET BY VERY LOW
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
APRIL 18.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19860412 - 20090405 - 20060318 - 20010401 - 19790416
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19860412 - 20090405 - 20010401 - 19790415 - 20060320
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 11 - 15 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA N N
N TEXAS N N S TEXAS B A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 13 - 19 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B
MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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