684
FXUS06 KWBC 081902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT MON APRIL 08 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 14 - 18 2024
A RAPID CHANGE IN THE FORECAST HEIGHT PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND HAS RESULTED IN
A MUCH DIFFERENT HEIGHT PATTERN TODAY RELATIVE TO THAT PREDICTED LAST FRIDAY.
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED AMPLIFIED
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE MAJOR FEATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS
U.S. (CONUS) AND ADJACENT PACIFIC HAVE RETROGRADED SLIGHTLY RELATIVE TO THE
OFFICIAL OUTLOOK YESTERDAY. THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED PRIMARILY
ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CANADIAN MODELS DUE TO RECENT
MODEL SKILL. THE RESULTANT MANUAL BLEND FEATURES POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OVER ALASKA DOWN INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC, NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OVER THE INTERIOR WEST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS, AND POSITIVE ANOMALIES
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII WITH
NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES NORTHWEST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING FORECAST ACROSS THE EAST BRINGS ELEVATED CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY EAST OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. THE STRONGEST CHANCES ARE FORECAST IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH
PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 70% IN THIS REGION. ACROSS THE WEST, THERE IS GREATER
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH MANY OF THE RAW AND SHORT-TERM
BIAS-CORRECTED TOOLS INDICATING INCREASED CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WHILE THE REFORECAST TOOLS GENERALLY FAVOR MORE NEAR-TO-ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION. THEREFORE, THERE IS A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHWEST WHILE NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. IN ALASKA, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED. RELATIVELY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BRING SIBERIAN AIR
INTO THE STATE. THE GEFS AND CANADIAN REFORECASTS FAVOR A MUCH COOLER SOLUTION
WHILE THE ECENS FAVORS MORE NEAR- TO EVEN ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ADDING TO
THE UNCERTAINTY. IN HAWAII, A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
FORECAST CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION TOOL.
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAY’S FORECAST. AN
AREA OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE CONUS
EAST OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THE GEFS AND ECENS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF THE POTENTIAL
FOR LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS THAT COULD BRING ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF THE ROCKIES, PLAINS, AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FURTHER
EAST, BENEATH STRONGLY POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING,
NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED. WHILE BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE WEST, BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF
CALIFORNIA AND MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IN ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MAINLAND WITH
NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FAVORED IN THE SOUTHERN HALF AND BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FAVORED IN THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA. IN
HAWAII, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE STATE WITH STRONG
CHANCES FORECAST BY THE CONSOLIDATION TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODEL HEIGHT TOOLS OFFSET BY DIFFERENCES AMONG
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 16 - 22 2024
DURING WEEK-2 A STRONG POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY IS FORECAST OVER THE
BERING SEA WITH POSITIVE ANOMALIES ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA AND INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OFF THE WEST COAST. WEAKLY NEGATIVE ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN INTERIOR WEST WITH NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHERN FOUR CORNERS
REGION. WHILE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
REMAIN FORECAST AS IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. AS IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, THE MAJOR
FEATURES ACROSS THE PARTS OF THE CONUS HAVE LARGELY RETROGRADED A FEW HUNDRED
MILES RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY’S FORECAST.
THE WEEK-2 TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST WITH THE
STRONGEST CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES EXCEEDING 50% ARE FORECAST FOR PARTS OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST. IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD
WITH A WEAKER TROUGH FORECAST REDUCING CHANCES FOR COLD AIR TO INTRUDE INTO THE
REGION. IN THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLE
DYNAMICAL TOOLS REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE OF ANY BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT, A BROADER AREA OF NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FAVORED
FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHILE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS BELOW-NORMAL IS FAVORED WITH MORE AGREEMENT AMONG THE TOOLS IN THIS
REGION. IN ALASKA, BELOW-NORMAL REMAINS FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE
DESPITE A ECENS REFORECAST TOOL THAT IS CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN ITS RAW
COUNTERPART AND THE REFORECASTS FROM THE GEFS AND CANADIAN. THIS DOES INTRODUCE
MORE UNCERTAINTY INTO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ACROSS THE STATE. IN HAWAII,
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED.
THE WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST WITH A
LARGE AREA OF SLIGHTLY ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE CENTER OF THE CONUS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE TROUGHING ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WEST. BEHIND THE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST, BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO PROGRESS INTO THE REGION BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN THE EAST, NEAR-NORMAL IS FAVORED IN THE NORTHEAST AND
ALONG MUCH OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH POSITIVE ANOMALIES REMAINING FORECAST
IN THE REGION. IN ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE MAINLAND. NEAR-NORMAL IS FAVORED FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA
COAST. IN HAWAII, A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
FOR MUCH OF THE STATE, EXCLUDING THE BIG ISLAND.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, FAIR
AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN OFFSET LESS
AGREEMENT IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ACROSS THE WEST AND ALASKA.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
APRIL 18.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20010402 - 19870319 - 20060319 - 20070418 - 20050411
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19870318 - 20010402 - 19950323 - 20060319 - 20060418
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 14 - 18 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B N OREGON B B NRN CALIF N B
SRN CALIF N B IDAHO N A NEVADA N N
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING N A
UTAH N A ARIZONA N N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 16 - 22 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N N NEVADA A B
W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH N N ARIZONA A B COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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