481
FXUS06 KWBC 092026
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE APRIL 09 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 15 - 19 2024
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED AMPLIFIED
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CANADIAN MODELS DUE TO RECENT MODEL
SKILL. THE RESULTANT MANUAL BLEND FEATURES POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
OVER ALASKA DOWN INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OFF THE WEST COAST. AN ANOMALOUS
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, WHILE RIDGING AND POSITIVE ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. WEAK TROUGHING WITH NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
FAVORED FOR HAWAII.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING FORECAST ACROSS THE EAST BRINGS ELEVATED CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. THE
STRONGEST CHANCES ARE FORECAST PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH PROBABILITIES
EXCEEDING 80% IN THIS REGION. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST OVER MUCH
OF THE WESTERN CONUS UNDER BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHT, CONSISTENT WITH THE
GEFS AND ECMWF TEMPERATURE REFORECAST CONSOLIDATION TOOLS. IN ALASKA, NEAR- TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. IN HAWAII, SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST OVER KAUAI, WHILE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER OAHU, MAUI
AND THE BIG ISLAND, CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION TOOL.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
BENEATH STRONGLY POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING. WHILE
BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE WEST, BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
ACROSS WESTERN ONE THIRD OF THE CONUS. NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS DUE TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PREDICTED
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A SURFACE LOW PREDICTED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS,
CONSISTENT WITH THE GEFS AND ECMWF PRECIPITATION REFORECAST CONSOLIDATION
TOOLS. IN ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MAINLAND WITH BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FAVORED IN THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FAVORED IN SOUTHEAST ALASKA. IN HAWAII, ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE STATE WITH STRONG CHANCES FORECAST BY
THE CONSOLIDATION TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 40% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS AND FORECAST TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 17 - 23 2024
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. DURING WEEK-2 A STRONG POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALY IS FORECAST OVER THE BERING SEA WITH POSITIVE ANOMALIES ACROSS
MOST OF ALASKA AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OFF THE WEST COAST. WEAKLY NEGATIVE
ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR WEST WITH NEAR-NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHERN FOUR CORNERS REGION. WHILE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS,
RIDGING WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES REMAIN FORECAST AS IN THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD. A WEAK TROUGH WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE STILL
PREDICTED OVER HAWAII.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS DUE
THE FORECAST RIDGING AND ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES EXCEEDING 50% ARE FAVORED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO FAVORED OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, CALIFORNIA, AND WESTERN
NEVADA, WHILE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN PLAINS REGION, AND SUPPORTED BY MOST DYNAMIC TEMPERATURE FORECAST
TOOLS. IN ALASKA, BELOW-NORMAL REMAINS FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE,
CONSISTENT WITH THE GEFS CALIBRATED REFORECAST TOOL. IN HAWAII, NEAR- TO
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED, AND SUPPORTED BY THE CONSOLIDATION
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOL.
THE WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST WITH A
LARGE AREA OF SLIGHTLY ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE CENTER OF THE CONUS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE TROUGHING ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WEST AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH MEAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. BEHIND THE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST, BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO PROGRESS
INTO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN THE EAST, NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL IS
FAVORED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
REMAINING FORECAST IN THE REGION. IN ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS
FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. IN HAWAII, A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE STATE, EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN BIG
ISLAND.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS AND FORECAST TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TOOLS.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
APRIL 18.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20060418 - 20050410 - 19950323 - 20060320 - 19990404
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20060418 - 20090323 - 19950323 - 19770416 - 19990411
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 15 - 19 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B B OREGON B B NRN CALIF N B
SRN CALIF B B IDAHO B N NEVADA B B
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL N N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 17 - 23 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF N B IDAHO B B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA B B E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH N N ARIZONA A N COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA N A IOWA N A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page