744
FXUS06 KWBC 101933
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT WED APRIL 10 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 16 - 20 2024
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED AMPLIFIED
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CANADIAN MODELS DUE TO RECENT MODEL
SKILL. THE RESULTANT MANUAL BLEND FEATURES POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
OVER ALASKA DOWN INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST. AN
ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS, WHILE RIDGING AND POSITIVE ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED
OVER THE EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S (CONUS). WEAK TROUGHING WITH NEGATIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING FORECAST ACROSS THE EAST BRINGS ELEVATED CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. THE
STRONGEST CHANCES ARE FORECAST PARTS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS WITH
PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 80%. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST OVER MUCH
OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS UNDER BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHT, CONSISTENT WITH
THE GEFS AND ECMWF TEMPERATURE REFORECAST CONSOLIDATION TOOLS. IN ALASKA, NEAR-
TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. FOR HAWAII THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY AND A VARIETY
OF SOLUTIONS AMONG THE MODELS AND TOOLS, THUS NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA BENEATH STRONGLY POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND MID-LEVEL
RIDGING. WHILE BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE WEST, BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. NEAR- TO
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS DUE TO
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A SURFACE LOW PREDICTED
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH THE GEFS AND ECMWF PRECIPITATION
REFORECAST CONSOLIDATION TOOLS. IN ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MAINLAND WITH BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FAVORED IN
THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE. IN HAWAII, ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE STATE WITH STRONG CHANCES FORECAST BY
THE CONSOLIDATION TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, WITH
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG FORECAST MODELS AND TOOLS, OFFSET BY A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 18 - 24 2024
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. DURING WEEK-2 A STRONG POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALY IS FORECAST OVER THE BERING SEA WITH POSITIVE ANOMALIES ACROSS
MOST OF ALASKA AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC, MOVING FURTHER INTO THE WEST COAST
RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. WEAKLY NEGATIVE ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, RIDGING WITH POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES REMAIN FORECAST AS IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. A WEAK
TROUGH WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE STILL PREDICTED OVER
HAWAII.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN, SOUTHERN, AND
EASTERN CONUS DUE THE FORECAST RIDGING AND ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER
BOTH COASTS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES EXCEEDING 50% ARE FAVORED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, AND ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURE ARE INDICATED FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS AS WELL. BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS, SUPPORTED BY MOST
DYNAMIC TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. IN ALASKA, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE, CONSISTENT WITH THE GEFS CALIBRATED
REFORECAST TOOL, WHILE NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY FOR THE
PANHANDLE. IN HAWAII, NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN FAVORED, WITH
SIMILAR REASONING SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
THE WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST WITH A
LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE TROUGHING PROGRESSING
EAST FROM THE INTERIOR WEST AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH MEAN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION (>50%) IS CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS. BEHIND THE TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST, BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED, WITH AN
EXTENSION ALONG THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS BOTH THE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS SHIFTS EASTWARD. IN ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE, WHILE BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY FOR
THE ALASKAN PENINSULA. IN HAWAII NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ONCE AGAIN
INDICATED, WITH POOR AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS AND FORECAST TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, ABOVE
AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG FORECAST MODELS AND TOOLS,
OFFSET BY A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
FORECASTER: DANIEL BARANDIARAN
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
APRIL 18.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19770416 - 20060419 - 20050410 - 20080410 - 19990412
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19770416 - 20060419 - 19790410 - 20080410 - 19950323
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 16 - 20 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B B OREGON B B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO B N NEVADA B B
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B N ARIZONA A B COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 18 - 24 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA N B E MONTANA N B WYOMING N B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO N N
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA N B
NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA N B IOWA N N MISSOURI N A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA N A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A A RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page