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FXUS06 KWBC 111903
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU APRIL 11 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 17 - 21 2024
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED AMPLIFIED
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CANADIAN MODELS DUE TO RECENT MODEL
SKILL. THE RESULTANT MANUAL BLEND FEATURES POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
OVER ALASKA DOWN INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST. AN
ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS, WHILE RIDGING AND POSITIVE ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED
OVER THE EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S (CONUS). WEAK TROUGHING WITH NEGATIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING FORECAST ACROSS THE EAST BRINGS ELEVATED CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS. THE
STRONGEST CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST PARTS FOR PORTIONS
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 70%. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
(>70%) LOCATED OVER PORTIONS OF MONTANA AND WYOMING, CONSISTENT WITH THE GEFS
AND ECMWF TEMPERATURE REFORECAST CONSOLIDATION TOOLS. IN ALASKA, BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE MAINLAND WHILE NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ALASKAN PENINSULA AND
PANHANDLE, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. FOR
HAWAII (EXCEPT FOR THE BIG ISLAND), ODDS TILT SLIGHTLY TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, CONSISTENT WITH THE HAWAII CON AND TODAY’S AUTOBLEND. NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE BIG ISLAND.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA BENEATH STRONGLY
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING. BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE WEST COAST, WHERE PROBABILITIES EXCEED 50%. NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS DUE TO A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A SURFACE LOW PREDICTED OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH THE GEFS AND ECMWF PRECIPITATION REFORECAST
CONSOLIDATION TOOLS. IN ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MAINLAND WITH BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FAVORED IN THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE. IN HAWAII, ODDS TILT SLIGHTLY TOWARDS
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION, CONSISTENT WITH THE HAWAII CON.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, WITH
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG FORECAST MODELS AND TOOLS, OFFSET BY A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 19 - 25 2024
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD PREDICT A DE-AMPLIFICATION OF
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE MUCH WEAKER RELATIVE
TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
SPREAD AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS INCREASES. DURING WEEK-2 STRONG POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA OF
EASTERN RUSSIA WITH POSITIVE ANOMALIES EXTENDING ACROSS THE BERING SEA,
SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA, AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC, MOVING FURTHER INTO THE WEST
COAST RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. WEAKLY NEGATIVE ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WITH NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. WEAK RIDGING WITH POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FAVORED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST. A WEAK TROUGH
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FAVORED TO CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF
HAWAII.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS DUE THE FORECAST RIDGING AND ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER BOTH
COASTS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES EXCEEDING 50% ARE INDICATED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN, AND ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE
ARE INDICATED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AS WELL. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES, AND OHIO
VALLEY SUPPORTED BY MOST DYNAMIC TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. THERE IS GREATER
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, THUS NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED. IN ALASKA, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF
THE STATE, CONSISTENT WITH THE GEFS CALIBRATED REFORECAST TOOL, WHILE
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY FOR THE PANHANDLE. IN HAWAII,
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE ENTIRE STATE, WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR KAUAI.
THE WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST WITH A
LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION INDICATED ACROSS
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE TROUGHING
PROGRESSING EAST FROM THE INTERIOR WEST AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH MEAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE GREATEST CHANCES
FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION (>50%) IS CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS. BEHIND THE
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST, BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED, WITH
AN EXTENSION ALONG THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS BOTH THE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS SHIFTS EASTWARD. IN ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE, WHILE NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY FOR
THE ALASKAN PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE. IN HAWAII
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ONCE AGAIN SLIGHTLY FAVORED, CONSISTENT WITH THE
HAWAII CON.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG FORECAST MODELS AND TOOLS, OFFSET BY A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN AND WEAK ANOMALIES IN ENSEMBLE FORECASTS.
FORECASTER: DANIEL BARANDIARAN
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
APRIL 18.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19770417 - 20080410 - 20070327 - 20060419 - 19790412
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19770417 - 20080410 - 20090417 - 19790411 - 20070326
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 17 - 21 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B B OREGON B B NRN CALIF N B
SRN CALIF N B IDAHO B B NEVADA B B
W MONTANA B B E MONTANA B N WYOMING B N
UTAH B B ARIZONA N B COLORADO B N
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N
NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA B N IOWA N N MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 19 - 25 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA N B E MONTANA N B WYOMING N B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA N B
NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA B B IOWA B N MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN B B
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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