404
FXUS01 KWBC 130747
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
346 AM EDT SAT APR 13 2024
VALID 12Z SAT APR 13 2024 - 12Z MON APR 15 2024
...HEAVY LOWER ELEVATION RAIN, MOUNTAIN SNOW, AND GUSTY WINDS
FORECAST FOR CALIFORNIA...
...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND, WITH A THREAT FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER IN
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY...
...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WEST/CENTRAL U.S. SATURDAY EXPAND TO THE EAST COAST SUNDAY...
A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST THIS MORNING WILL BE THE
DOMINANT DRIVER OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER FOR THE COUNTRY FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PACIFIC MOISTURE FLOWING INLAND WILL BRING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY LOWER ELEVATION COASTAL/VALLEY RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
CALIFORNIA SATURDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED WHERE
THE MOIST FLOW INTERSECTS FAVORABLE UPSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE
CENTRAL COASTAL RANGES INTO THE TRANSVERSE RANGES AND
NORTHERN/CENTRAL SIERRA, AND SOME ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLOODING
COULD OCCUR. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERALL SHOULD COME DOWN INTO THE
DAY SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER INLAND AND THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE FROM THE OCEAN DECREASES. HOWEVER, SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
AMOUNTS ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY FOR THE TRANSVERSE
RANGES WHERE WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FROM THE PRIOR DAYS
RAINFALL WILL BRING ANOTHER RISK OF SOME ISOLATED FLOODING. IN
ADDITION TO RAINFALL, HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL
RANGES, KLAMATH MOUNTAINS, AND SIERRA NEVADA WILL SEE SOME
MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS, WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN
PLACE. MUCH COOLER AIR SETTLING IN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT AND WITH THE DEEP UPPER-LOW OVERHEAD WILL EVEN LEAD TO
SOME SNOW FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AROUND GREATER
LOS ANGELES. SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE LOWER ELEVATION RAIN SHOWERS
AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW WILL ALSO SPREAD INTO THE GREAT BASIN
SATURDAY AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES SUNDAY. OTHERWISE,
CONDITIONS IN VICINITY OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER DRY AS IT
PUSHES THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING,
WITH A RENEWED THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING SOME SEVERE WEATHER, LATER MONDAY JUST
BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL ALSO BE RATHER
GUSTY AS THE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE WEST.
SOME LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES/INTERIOR NORTHEAST,
ROTATING AROUND A DEEP CYCLONE LOCATED IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE APPALACHIANS MAY SEE SOME SNOW MIX
IN. GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS WELL. SHOWER CHANCES
SHOULD TAPER OFF INTO THE DAY AS THE CYCLONE MOVES AWAY FROM THE
U.S. HOWEVER, A CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA
WILL BRING A RENEWED CHANCE OF MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY TO THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST, LOWER GREAT LAKES, UPPER OHIO
VALLEY, AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN APPALACHIANS. A STRENGTHENING
UPPER-LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL OVERLAP ENOUGH SURFACE
MOISTURE/BUOYANCY TO LEAD TO THE THREAT OF SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FROM THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER FROM EASTERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT, THOUGH SOME LARGE HAIL AND
A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH TEMPERATURES 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WILL
EXPAND FROM THE INTERIOR WEST/PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN U.S. THIS
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE EAST COAST. SOME OF
THE GREATEST ANOMALIES WILL BE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY, WHERE HIGHS INTO THE 80S ARE
UPWARDS OF 20-30 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. A FEW NEAR
RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGHS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AS HIGHS REACH INTO THE MID-80S TO LOW 90S. THE COMBINATION OF
WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND GUSTY
WINDS HAVE PROMPTED AN ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE WEATHER (LEVEL 1/3)
FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. IN CONTRAST,
HIGHS WILL BE COOL AND WELL BELOW AVERAGE IN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY,
SPREADING INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND DESERT
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY, AS THE PACIFIC SYSTEM PUSHES INLAND.
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