341  
FXUS01 KWBC 160807  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
405 AM EDT TUE APR 16 2024  
 
VALID 12Z TUE APR 16 2024 - 12Z THU APR 18 2024  
 
...STORM SYSTEM TO BRING THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AND ISOLATED  
FLASH FLOODING TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY AND THE LOWER  
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...  
 
...MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT  
COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...  
 
...WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND DESERT  
SOUTHWEST, CHILLIER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND  
NORTHERN ROCKIES...  
 
A SEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE/FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL  
U.S. WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING  
THE DAY TUESDAY. A SUSTAINED ARC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER  
MIDWEST THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST,  
WITH MORE SCATTERED STORMS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE  
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ALONG AN EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. A  
RENEWED ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD  
FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG DEEP-LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR  
ALONG WITH MORE THAN SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY WILL BE AVAILABLE IN THE  
WARM SECTOR FOR ROBUST SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. THE STORM PREDICTION  
CENTER HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 3/5)  
FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IOWA, NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI, AND FAR  
WESTERN ILLINOIS WHERE THESE STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR VERY  
LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES, INCLUDING THE RISK FOR  
A STRONG TORNADO. A BROADER SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) EXTENDS  
SOUTHWARD THROUGH MISSOURI INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS WHERE A MORE  
ISOLATED THREAT FOR STORMS WILL EXIST, BUT WILL STILL POSE THE  
THREAT FOR ALL HAZARDS. IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER, ROUNDS OF  
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS OVER THE UPPER  
MIDWEST ALONG WITH POTENTIALLY MORE SCATTERED BUT HEAVIER  
DOWNPOURS WITH STORMS TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY WILL POSE A THREAT FOR SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.  
 
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE GREAT  
LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY. SIMILAR TO TUESDAY, STORMS WILL  
LIKELY BE ONGOING OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY,  
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT  
LAKES. SOME SCATTERED STORMS MAY ALSO CONTINUE ALONG THE COLD  
FRONT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A RENEWED ROUND OF STORM  
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,  
WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN PLACE FROM EASTERN INDIANA  
INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND WESTERN OHIO FOR THE THREAT OF LARGE  
HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE STORMS ARE FORECAST  
TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. AGAIN,  
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY, MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVER THE GREAT LAKES  
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE POTENT DOWNPOURS WITH STORMS  
FURTHER SOUTH WILL POSE A THREAT FOR SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.  
 
TO THE WEST, ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL  
SYSTEM PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL  
BRING THE CHANCE FOR SOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW FOR  
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF MONTANA TUESDAY AND INTO  
WYOMING BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINTER WEATHER-RELATED ADVISORIES  
AND WARNINGS ARE IN PLACE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY BETWEEN  
6-12", WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS MORE LIKELY IN WYOMING. SOME LIGHTER  
SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRAILING END OF THE  
FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN CASCADES TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, THE  
REMAINDER OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL  
TEND TO GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER  
OF THE COUNTRY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER.  
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS  
EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST, WITH 70S AND 80S FOR CALIFORNIA AND  
THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, AND 70S IN THE  
MID-ATLANTIC. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER THE DESERT  
SOUTHWEST AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE 90S. TO THE NORTH, 50S AND 60S  
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN PLAINS, AND NEW  
ENGLAND. AREAS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL  
SEE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S BY  
WEDNESDAY.  
 
PUTNAM  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
 

 
 
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