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FXUS25 KWNC 141330
PMDDRO
US DROUGHT MONITOR DISCUSSION
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
830 AM EST THU 14 FEB 2008
NATIONAL DROUGHT SUMMARY FEBRUARY 12, 2008 THE DISCUSSION
IN THE LOOKING AHEAD SECTION IS SIMPLY A DESCRIPTION OF WHAT
THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL GUIDANCE FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE /NWS/ NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION
IS DEPICTING FOR CURRENT AREAS OF DRYNESS AND DROUGHT. THE
NWS FORECAST PRODUCTS UTILIZED INCLUDE THE HPC 5-DAY QPF
AND 5-DAY MEAN TEMPERATURE PROGS, THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOKS
OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY, AND THE 8-14
DAY OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY,
VALID AS OF LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OF THE USDM RELEASE
WEEK. THE NWS FORECAST WEB PAGE USED FOR THIS SECTION IS:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/FORECASTS/. THE SOUTHEAST
AND MID-ATLANTIC: IN CONTRAST TO THE PREVIOUS WEEK WHEN MUCH
NEEDED PRECIPITATION FELL IN MANY DROUGHT-AFFECTED AREAS,
LITTLE PRECIPITATION FELL IN THE SOUTHEAST AS A WHOLE DURING
THE PAST SEVEN DAYS. CONDITIONS REMAINED UNCHANGED IN MOST
OF THE REGION, BUT THE CONTINUED LACK OF RAIN IN FLORIDA LED
TO FURTHER DETERIORATION IN NORTHERN AREAS OF THE STATE. AN
EXTENSION OF MODERATE DROUGHT /D1H/ TO THE EAST AND SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST REFLECTED INCREASING DEFICITS
THAT HAVE LEFT 3-MONTH PRECIPITATION TOTALS AT LESS THAN 50
PERCENT OF AVERAGE. IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SEVERE /D2H/ TO EXTREME
/D3H/ DROUGHT REMAINED ACROSS A BROAD AREA FROM POLK TO SOUTHERN
COLLIER COUNTIES AND EAST TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE, WHICH DROPPED TO
9.99 FEET. THERE ARE REPORTS THAT SOME CANALS IN WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS OF COLLIER COUNTY ARE GOING DRY, AND THAT LAKE
TAFFORD, THE PRIMARY WATER SUPPLY FOR THE TOWN OF IMMOKOLLEE
IS COMPLETELY DRY. ALTHOUGH CHANGES IN DROUGHT SEVERITY WERE
NOT MADE IN OTHER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, THE PERSISTENCE
OF SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONTRIBUTED TO NUMEROUS
WILDFIRES. IN NORTH CAROLINA DOWNED POWER LINES SPARKED FIRES
THAT BURNED MORE THAN 10,000 ACRES DURING THE PAST WEEKEND,
ACCORDING TO NORTH CAROLINAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST. THIS
WAS APPROXIMATELY HALF THE TOTAL ACREAGE NORMALLY CONSUMED
BY WILDFIRE DURING AN AVERAGE YEAR IN THE STATE. WILDFIRE
ACTIVITY HAS ALSO BEEN UNUSUALLY HIGH IN VIRGINIA, WHERE MORE
THAN 9,000 ACRES HAVE BURNED SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR,
ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL INTERAGENCY FIRE CENTER. THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND MIDWEST: MORE THAN TWO TO THREE INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION FELL IN THE DROUGHT-FREE AREA STRETCHING FROM
SOUTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN
OHIO DURING THE PAST WEEK. AMOUNTS GENERALLY DECREASED WITH
DISTANCE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THIS LINE. LIGHT AMOUNTS IN AREAS
ALONG THE KENTUCKY/WEST VIRGINIA BORDER THAT HAVE BEEN WETTER
THAN AVERAGE IN RECENT WEEKS LED TO A SMALL SOUTHWARD SHIFT
OF ABNORMALLY DRY AND MODERATE DROUGHT /D1H/ BOUNDARIES. AREAS
IN D0 AND D1H IN MICHIGAN, NORTHEAST WISCONSIN, AND MINNESOTA
GENERALLY RECEIVED UP TO 0.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION, AND NO
CHANGE IN DROUGHT STATUS OCCURRED. THE PLAINS: CONDITIONS
CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE IN LARGE PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. IN TEXAS, SEVERE DROUGHT /D2A/ WAS EXTENDED NORTHWARD
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TO THE DEL RIO AREA AND AS FAR NORTH
AS MASON AND LLANO COUNTIES. ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ CONDITIONS
WERE DOWNGRADED TO MODERATE DROUGHT /D1A/ IN CENTRAL TEXAS,
WHILE D1A AND D0 BOUNDARIES WERE PUSHED EASTWARD IN SOUTHERN
TEXAS. CORPUS CHRISTI EXPERIENCED ITS DRIEST OCTOBER 1 THRU
FEBRUARY 10'SINCE 1962. ONLY 2.88 INCHES OF RAIN FELL DURING
THE PERIOD, APPROXIMATELY 30 PERCENT OF AVERAGE. WILDFIRES
CONTINUED TO THREATEN LARGE PARTS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
TEXAS. ACCORDING TO AN AGRILIFE EXTENSION AGENT IN CALLAHAN
COUNTY OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS, HIGH WINDS AND LACK OF RAINFALL
LED TO EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WITH NUMEROUS FIRES
BURNING IN THE COUNTY. FOR THE STATE AS A WHOLE, APPROXIMATELY
17,000 ACRES BURNED DUE TO WILDFIRES DURING A 3-DAY PERIOD. FOR
THE YEAR, ACREAGE LOST TO WILDFIRES ALREADY EXCEEDED 150,000
ACRES, APPROXIMATELY 25 PERCENT MORE THAN BURNED IN ALL OF
2007. AGRICULTURAL REPORTS IN WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS INDICATE GOOD
COTTON YIELDS WHILE WHEAT IS IN VERY POOR CONDITION DUE TO THE
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS. AN EXTENSION AGENT IN SOMERVELL
COUNTY SOUTHWEST OF FORT WORTH NOTED THAT HIGH WINDS CONTINUED
TO DEPLETE TOPSOIL MOISTURE AND AS A RESULT THERE IS VERY LITTLE
GREEN VEGETATION IN PASTURES AND WINTER FOOD FOR LIVESTOCK HAS
SHOWN LITTLE GROWTH. CONDITIONS ALSO DETERIORATED ALONG THE
WESTERN OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE BORDER, WHERE D0 WAS DOWNGRADED
TO MODERATE DROUGHT /D1A/. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN BELOW AVERAGE
FOR MUCH OF THE PAST SIX MONTHS, AND 60-DAY PRECIPITATION TOTALS
LESS THAN 25 PERCENT OF AVERAGE ARE WIDESPREAD. THE ROCKIES,
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, AND FAR WEST: THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
DURING THE PAST WEEK FELL IN DROUGHT-FREE AREAS FROM THE COAST
TO THE CASCADES OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON. PRECIPITATION ALSO
FELL ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, BUT OUTSIDE OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF MONTANA, CONDITIONS IN THE WEST
WERE GENERALLY DRIER THAN AVERAGE. NEVERTHELESS, REDUCTIONS IN
DROUGHT SEVERITY WERE MADE IN SEVERAL PARTS OF THE WEST BASED
ON NEW INFORMATION FROM THE NRCS REPORT ON FEBRUARY 1 WESTERN
SNOWPACK CONDITIONS AND RELEASE OF AN UPDATE TO THE WESTERN
WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK THAT TOOK INTO ACCOUNT THE GENERALLY
ABUNDANT JANUARY SNOWFALL. SIGNIFICANT SURPLUSES IN SNOWPACK
EXIST OVER ALL OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST /WASHINGTON, OREGON, AND
IDAHO/ AND MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES OF COLORADO
AND NEW MEXICO, AS WELL AS ARIZONA AND UTAH. DEFICITS DOMINATE
IN SOME BASINS IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES /WYOMING AND MONTANA/,
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO, AND EASTERN ALASKA. SPRING AND SUMMER
STREAMFLOW FORECASTS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE WEST
DURING JANUARY, AND AT THE START OF FEBRUARY, FORECASTS CALL FOR
WELL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES OVER ARIZONA AND MOST OF NEW MEXICO,
UTAH, AND COLORADO. NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS /+/- 30 PERCENT
THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE/ ARE FORECASTED IN OTHER AREAS, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHERN IDAHO, MUCH OF WESTERN WYOMING, AND
SMALL PARTS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN MONTANA. MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK
AT THE BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY WAS ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF
OREGON WITH AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 150 PERCENT OF AVERAGE OVER MUCH
OF THE OREGON CASCADES. REFLECTING THESE SNOWPACK CONDITIONS,
ABOVE NORMAL SPRING AND SUMMER STREAMFLOWS, >110 PERCENT TO
130 PERCENT OF AVERAGE, ARE PREDICTED FOR MOST OF OREGON. THESE
CONDITIONS SUPPORTED 1-CATEGORY REDUCTIONS IN D0 TO D2H DROUGHT
SEVERITY IN CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. ONE-CATEGORY REDUCTIONS
WERE ALSO MADE ACROSS LARGE PARTS OF UTAH WHERE ABOVE AVERAGE
SNOWPACK PREDOMINATES. MODERATE DROUGHT /D1H/ WAS UPGRADED TO D0
FROM SOUTHWESTERN TO NORTHEASTERN UTAH AND THE SEVERE DROUGHT
/D2H//MODERATE DROUGHT /D1H/ BOUNDARY WAS PUSHED NORTHWESTWARD
TO THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GREAT SALT LAKE. MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK
EXCEEDED 130 PERCENT OF AVERAGE IN SOUTHWESTERN UTAH WITH
GENERALLY ABOVE AVERAGE AMOUNTS />110 PERCENT/ FROM CENTRAL TO
NORTHEASTERN AREAS OF THE STATE. SNOWPACK IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR
SALT LAKE CITY WAS HELPED BY RECORD JANUARY SNOWFALL. A TOTAL
OF 170 INCHES OF SNOW FELL IN THE MONTH OF JANUARY AT THE ALTA
SKI AREA SOUTHEAST OF THE CITY. THIS WAS MORE THAN HALF OF THE
AVERAGE SNOWFALL FOR THE MONTH AND ECLIPSED THE PREVIOUS RECORD
OF 168 INCHES THAT FELL IN 1967. SNOW WATER CONTENT WAS NEAR TO
ABOVE AVERAGE IN EVERY RIVER BASIN IN UTAH. BY THE END OF THE
FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY, THE AVERAGE SEASONAL PEAK HAD ALREADY
BEEN ECLIPSED IN THE VIRGIN BASIN OF SOUTHWEST UTAH, MORE THAN
ONE MONTH PRIOR TO THE NORMAL PEAK IN LATE MARCH. RESERVOIR
LEVELS FOR THE STATE OF UTAH AS A WHOLE REMAINED BELOW AVERAGE,
BUT SEVERAL RESERVOIRS IN UTAH WERE AT LEVELS NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND WEEK OF FEBRUARY. WHILE INFLOW FROM
MELTING SNOWPACK IS STILL TO BE REALIZED, NRCS FORECASTS OF
SPRING AND SUMMER STREAMFLOW ARE ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
IN MOST OF UTAH. A LARGE AREA OF D2H DROUGHT PERSISTS IN
NORTHWESTERN UTAH AND STRETCHES INTO SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND
SOUTHERN IDAHO WHERE SEASONAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE
BEEN GENERALLY AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE AND LARGE LONG-TERM
PRECIPITATION DEFICITS REMAIN. MODERATE DROUGHT /D1H/ ALSO
REMAINS IN SOUTHEASTERN UTAH AND ALONG THE ARIZONA BORDER
WHERE LAKE POWELL STORAGE IS LESS THAN 70 PERCENT OF AVERAGE.
ONE-CATEGORY IMPROVEMENTS WERE MADE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
HALF OF MONTANA. ALTHOUGH FEBRUARY 1 MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK WAS
BELOW AVERAGE IN SOME PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, AVERAGE
TO ABOVE AVERAGE MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK PREDOMINATED. NRCS SNOTEL
SNOW WATER CONTENT AS OF FEBRUARY 12 WAS ABOVE AVERAGE ALONG
THE BITTERROOT RANGE OF FAR WESTERN MONTANA /110-125 PERCENT
OF AVERAGE/, AND CONDITIONS WERE AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. WITH THE 1-CATEGORY REDUCTIONS, SEVERE
DROUGHT /D2H/ REMAINS IN ONLY A SMALL AREA CENTERED ON CHOUTEAU
COUNTY OF NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA AS WELL AS AREAS OF EASTERN
MONTANA STRETCHING INTO NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA, WHERE 3-MONTH
PRECIPITATION HAS TOTALED LESS THAN HALF OF AVERAGE. MODERATE
DROUGHT /D1H/ AND ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER MUCH
OF THE REMAINDER OF MONTANA. HOWEVER DROUGHT AND ABNORMALLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE NOW ABSENT FROM PARTS OF WESTERN MONTANA
AND NORTHERN IDAHO. CONDITIONS DETERIORATED IN ONLY TWO AREAS
OF THE WEST. MODERATE DROUGHT /D1H/ EXPANDED WESTWARD ACROSS
KINGS AND SOUTHWESTERN FRESNO COUNTIES IN THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WHERE DRIER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS HAVE
PREVAILED OVER THE PAST THREE TO SIX MONTHS. AN EXTENSION OF
ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS /D0A/ FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO
SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA REFLECTED
SEASON-TO-DATE PRECIPITATION LESS THAN 70 PERCENT OF AVERAGE
WITH TOTALS LESS THAN 50 PERCENT IN PARTS OF THE REGION.
ALASKA: IN A PATTERN SIMILAR TO THE PRECEDING WEEK, LITTLE OR
NO PRECIPITATION FELL ACROSS DROUGHT-AFFECTED AREAS OF ALASKA
AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE REST OF STATE OUTSIDE OF THE PANHANDLE,
WHERE LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION TOTALS EXCEEDING 1 TO
2 INCHES WERE WIDESPREAD. FEBRUARY 1 SNOWPACK LESS THAN 70
PERCENT OF AVERAGE SUPPORTED AN EXTENSION OF ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/
CONDITIONS IN THE ARCTIC PLAINS OF NORTHERN ALASKA AND SOUTHWARD
IN THE ALASKA RANGE AND TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN ALASKA.
LOOKING AHEAD: FOR FEBRUARY 14-FEBRUARY 18, AN ACTIVE PATTERN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE NATION IS EXPECTED TO BRING MUCH
NEEDED PRECIPITATION TO SOME DROUGHT-AFFECTED AREAS. EARLY IN
THE PERIOD A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST ARE PROJECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN
AND SNOW IN NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS. SLOW MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS
THE STORM SYSTEM BECOMES SEPARATED FROM THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR CENTRAL GULF COAST STORM
DEVELOPMENT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD WITH PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND OHIO
RIVER BASIN BENEFITTING FROM ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. WHILE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BRINGS COOLER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE EAST, WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. FOR THE ENSUING 5 DAYS
/FEBRUARY 19-23/, PROJECTIONS FAVOR A RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND
A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
BRING WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN AREAS OF
THE NATION WHILE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. ARE PROJECTED
TO BE GENERALLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE. DRIER THAN AVERAGE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM THE WEST COAST TO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST, WHILE WETTER THAN AVERAGE
CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHEAST AND ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE PANHANDLE ARE ALSO
PROJECTED TO BE WETTER THAN AVERAGE, WHILE A PATTERN OF DRIER
THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS IS MORE LIKELY TO INFLUENCE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN AREAS OF THE STATE. AUTHOR: JAY LAWRIMORE,
NOAAS NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER DRYNESS CATEGORIES D0
.. ABNORMALLY DRY
USED FOR AREAS SHOWING DRYNESS BUT NOT
YET IN DROUGHT, OR FOR AREAS RECOVERING FROM DROUGHT.
DROUGHT INTENSITY CATEGORIES D1 ... MODERATE DROUGHT D2
.. SEVERE DROUGHT D3 ... EXTREME DROUGHT D4
EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT
DROUGHT OR DRYNESS TYPES A ... AGRICULTURAL H ... HYDROLOGICAL
UPDATED FEBRUARY 13, 2008
DROUGHT INTENSITY CATEGORIES...
D0 ABNORMALLY DRY...
D1 MODERATE DROUGHT...
D2 SEVERE DROUGHT...
D3 EXTREME DROUGHT...
D4 EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT
DROUGHT TYPES...
USED ONLY WHEN IMPACTS DIFFER...
A AGRICULTURAL...
H HYDROLOGIC.
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