051
FXUS25 KWNC 121543
PMDDRO
US DROUGHT MONITOR DISCUSSION
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
830 AM EST THU 12 MAR 2009
NATIONAL DROUGHT SUMMARY -- MARCH 10, 2009 THE DISCUSSION IN
THE LOOKING AHEAD SECTION IS SIMPLY A DESCRIPTION OF WHAT
THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL GUIDANCE FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE /NWS/ NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION
IS DEPICTING FOR CURRENT AREAS OF DRYNESS AND DROUGHT. THE
NWS FORECAST PRODUCTS UTILIZED INCLUDE THE HPC 5-DAY QPF
AND 5-DAY MEAN TEMPERATURE PROGS, THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOKS
OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY, AND THE 8-14
DAY OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY,
VALID AS OF LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OF THE USDM RELEASE
WEEK. THE NWS FORECAST WEB PAGE USED FOR THIS SECTION IS:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/FORECASTS/. BENEFICIAL
PRECIPITATION AGAIN FELL ON CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND INTO THE NORTHWEST, EAST OF THE CASCADES. LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION FELL ACROSS IN FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE
SOUTHEAST RESULTING IN INTENSIFYING DROUGHT PARTICULARLY IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. STORM SYSTEMS BROUGHT BENEFICIAL PRECIPITATION
ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. THE EAST:
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION /2 INCHES OR MORE/
FELL IN THE NORTHEAST WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FALLING
IN WESTERN NEW YORK. NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALSO BENEFITED
FROM ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION WHILE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SAW NEAR-NORMAL CONDITIONS. RAIN AND SNOW THAT FELL LAST
WEEK ACROSS ALABAMA AND GEORGIA HAD NO LITTLE IMPACT ON THE
DROUGHT THIS WEEK. LONG-TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS ARE STILL BEING
FELT IN THE AREA. WELL LEVELS HAVE REMAINED AT EXTREMELY LOW
CONDITIONS AND STREAMFLOW, WHICH PULSED FOLLOWING THE STORM,
CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE. MANY LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY BACK TO WELL
BELOW NORMAL STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS. ADDITIONALLY, THE LEVEL
OF LAKE LANIER HAS STABILIZED FOLLOWING A SMALL PULSE FROM
THE SURFACE RUNOFF. CONTINUED DRIER-THAN-AVERAGE CONDITIONS
IN FLORIDA RESULTED IN EXPANSION OF SEVERE DROUGHT /D2/ IN
WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE EAST COAST AND IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA.
CONTINUED DRYING OCCURRED THROUGH SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
WITH INCREASES IN THE EXTENT OF SEVERE DROUGHT /D2/ THERE AS
WELL. ADDITIONALLY, WILDFIRES ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE AREA.
IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA, LAKE OKEECHOBEE CONTINUES TO FALL /12.56
FEET ON MARCH 8/. IF PRECIPITATION DOES NOT INCREASE, FURTHER
DEGRADATION MAY BE NECESSARY IN THIS AREA IN THE COMING WEEKS.
THE GREAT LAKES REGION: MOST OF THE DROUGHT-AFFECTED AREAS
OF THE REGION MISSED THE BENEFICIAL PRECIPITATION THAT FELL
JUST TO THEIR SOUTH. CONTINUED LONG-TERM DEFICITS RESULTED IN
UNCHANGED DROUGHT CLASSIFICATION IN THIS REGION. THE PLAINS
AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA: A WEEK OF MUCH BELOW-AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION FROM MISSISSIPPI TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LED
TO EXPANSION OF ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATE,
SEVERE, AND EXTREME DROUGHT. ABNORMAL DRYNESS /D0/
INCREASED THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI DUE TO INCREASING
SHORT-TERM PRECIPITATION DEFICITS. IN LOUISIANA, THE EXTENT OF
MODERATE DROUGHT /D1/ INCREASED NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST.
MOUNTING DEFICITS IN THE AREA ARE SHOWING UP IN STREAMFLOW
AND WELL LEVELS WHICH ARE BEGINNING TO RUN BELOW TO WELL
BELOW NORMAL. IN TEXAS, MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS /D1/
EXPANDED IN THE EAST, TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE MEXICO BORDER,
AND IN THE WEST, RUNNING UP INTO NEW MEXICO. SEVERE /D2/
AND EXTREME /D3/ DROUGHT BOTH EXPANDED FROM THE CORE DROUGHT
AREA IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. ACCORDING TO
THE US DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, THE MAJORITY ACREAGE OF THE
STATE IS SUFFERING FROM SHORT TOPSOIL MOISTURE. LIKEWISE,
MOST OF THE WHEAT, OATS, AND RANGE AND PASTURE LAND IS IN
POOR TO VERY POOR CONDITION. IN OKLAHOMA, ABNORMAL DRYNESS
EXPANDED SLIGHTLY NORTHEASTWARD, AS DID MODERATE DROUGHT /D1/.
SEVERE DROUGHT /D2/ EXPANDED NORTHWARD TO THE CANADIAN RIVER.
WILDFIRES ARE BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE AREA BUT ARE NOWHERE
NEAR AS EXTREME AS THE 2005-2006 WINTER SEASON. ABNORMAL DRY
CONDITIONS /D0/ EXPANDED NORTHWARD AGAIN THIS WEEK THROUGH
WESTERN KANSAS AND INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA IN KEEPING WITH 30
TO 90-DAY PRECIPITATION TOTALS THAT HAVE BEEN LESS THAN 25 TO
50 PERCENT OF AVERAGE.
THE WEST: HEAVY PRECIPITATION ONCE AGAIN FELL ON CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO WESTERN NEVADA FURTHER HELPING
TO AMELIORATE DROUGHT IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS OF THESE
STATES. REPORTS OF ONE TO THREE PLUS INCHES OF PRECIPITATION
WERE COMMON THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THIS US DROUGHT MONITOR
PERIOD. EXTREME DROUGHT /D3/ WAS ELIMINATED. SEVERE DROUGHT
/D2/ IMPROVED IN THE SACRAMENTO AND SAN JOAQUIN BASINS, AS
WELL AS IN THE RUSSIAN, YUBA, AND AMERICAN RIVER WATERSHEDS
AND THROUGH MUCH OF WESTERN NEVADA. RESERVOIR STORAGE
CONTINUED TO INCREASE ON MANY RIVERS WITH SHASTA RESERVOIR
IN THE SACRAMENTO BASIN INCREASING ITS ELEVATION OVER 10 FEET
THIS WEEK. MODERATE DROUGHT /D1/ EASED SLIGHTLY IN SOUTHERN
IDAHO AND NORTHWEST MONTANA BUT BUILT INTO NORTHERN CASCADES
OF WASHINGTON. ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS /D0/ EXPANDED IN
EASTERN WASHINGTON. HAWAII, ALASKA AND PUERTO RICO: DROUGHT
CONDITIONS REMAINED UNCHANGED ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
RECENT RAINS IN WINDWARD LOCATIONS WERE SIGNIFICANT AND WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO EASING DROUGHT CONDITIONS IF THEY CONTINUE.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ALLEVIATED ABNORMAL DRYNESS
IN ALASKA. RECENT HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND ENSUING HIGH
STREAMFLOW EASED THE ABNORMAL DRYNESS IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO.
LOOKING AHEAD: THE NORTHERN TIER STATES ARE ANTICIPATED TO
RECEIVE THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION DURING MARCH 12 MARCH 16,
2009. MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF TEXAS IN
THE UPCOMING DAYS. OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL
TEXAS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FALLING IN THE PLAINS, ACROSS THE GULF
COAST, AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC. ADDITIONAL,
LESSER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST AS WELL AS THROUGH
THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. THE NORTHWEST, MAY ALSO
SEE SOME RELIEF. MUCH OF THE UPPER TIER OF THE COUNTRY,
AS WELL AS THE SOUTHWEST, IS EXPECTED TO SEE LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION. FOR THE ENSUING 5 DAYS /MARCH 17 21, 2009/,
THE ODDS FAVOR COOLER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS ALONG THE ENTIRE
COUNTRY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MOST OF THE PLAINS AND
THE WEST ARE LIKELY TO SEE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY OVER MOST OF THE
COUNTRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHEAST.
ODDS FAVOR DRY AND COOL FOR ALASKA. AUTHOR: MICHAEL BREWER,
NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER, NOAA DRYNESS CATEGORIES D0
.. ABNORMALLY DRY
USED FOR AREAS SHOWING DRYNESS BUT NOT
YET IN DROUGHT, OR FOR AREAS RECOVERING FROM DROUGHT.
DROUGHT INTENSITY CATEGORIES D1 ... MODERATE DROUGHT D2
.. SEVERE DROUGHT D3 ... EXTREME DROUGHT D4
EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT
DROUGHT OR DRYNESS TYPES A ... AGRICULTURAL H ... HYDROLOGICAL
UPDATED MARCH 11, 2009 WONT
DROUGHT INTENSITY CATEGORIES...
D0 ABNORMALLY DRY...
D1 MODERATE DROUGHT...
D2 SEVERE DROUGHT...
D3 EXTREME DROUGHT...
D4 EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT
DROUGHT TYPES...
USED ONLY WHEN IMPACTS DIFFER...
A AGRICULTURAL...
H HYDROLOGIC.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page