980
FXUS21 KWNC 151815
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EDT JUNE 15 2012
SYNOPSIS: A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. BEFORE ADVANCING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION
LATE NEXT WEEK. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, HOT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
SPREAD FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE EAST COAST. AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. LATER NEXT WEEK.
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN OR SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA AND
THE ALEUTIANS, WHILE WEAK SURFACE LOWS AFFECT THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE.
HAZARDS
HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE RIVER FLOODING FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES, JUNE 18-21.
SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, JUNE 18.
HIGH WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, JUNE 18.
HIGH WINDS FOR THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON COASTS, JUNE 18-20.
HIGH WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, ROCKIES, AND WESTERN GREAT
PLAINS, JUNE 18.
ENHANCED WILDFIRE RISK FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, JUNE 18.
HEAVY RAIN FOR SOUTH FLORIDA, JUNE 20-23.
HEAVY RAIN FOR SOUTH TEXAS, JUNE 20-23.
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST, JUNE 18-20.
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST,
JUNE 20-21.
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S., JUNE 21-25.
SEVERE DROUGHT FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, LOWER OHIO VALLEY, CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
GREAT PLAINS, RIO GRANDE VALLEY, CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES, MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST, SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN, AND HAWAII.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR MONDAY JUNE 18 - FRIDAY JUNE 22: A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE
HEAVIEST RAIN (2-4 INCHES, LOCALLY MORE) WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN EASTERN
MINNESOTA, WESTERN WISCONSIN, AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY BY MID-WEEK
AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST. ON MONDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TRIGGER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN
THIS REGION. THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES WITH THE
EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS FROM
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER AT: WWW.SPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV. HIGH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN
WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES.
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM THE MIDWEST EARLY IN
THE WEEK TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
MAY EXCEED 95 DEGREES F IN THESE AREAS. THE HOT TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH AN
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY VALUES COULD PROMPT HEAT ADVISORIES. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. DUE TO A
BUILDING 500-HPA RIDGE. BY THURSDAY, MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MAY EXCEED 110
DEGREES F IN THE LOWER DESERTS OF ARIZONA, CALIFORNIA, AND NEVADA.
A WIDESPREAD AREA OF HIGH WINDS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST,
SOUTHWEST, CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND THE FAR WESTERN GREAT PLAINS ON
MONDAY. THE HIGH WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW SOIL MOISTURE AND DRY FUELS LEAD TO AN
ENHANCED WILDFIRE RISK ON JUNE 18 AND POSSIBLY LONGER. MULTIPLE, LARGE
WILDFIRES CONTINUE TO BURN ACROSS THE WEST WITH NEARLY 300,000 ACRES BURNED
NEAR GLENWOOD, NEW MEXICO AND CLOSE TO 50,000 ACRES BURNED TO THE WEST OF FORT
COLLINS, COLORADO.
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON
COASTS FROM JUNE 18-20 RESULTING IN CONTINUED HIGH WINDS.
OPERATIONAL MODELS FROM JUNE 15 AND A MAJORITY OF 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
INDICATE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH A SUBSEQUENT
TRACK NORTHWEST TOWARDS NORTHEAST MEXICO OR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
THEREFORE, A HEAVY RAINFALL HAZARD IS NOW POSTED FOR SOUTH TEXAS BEGINNING ON
JUNE 20. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT: WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV. MEANWHILE, PERSISTENT, SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
INCREASES THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH
FLORIDA.
FOR SATURDAY JUNE 23 - FRIDAY JUNE 29: TROPICAL SUBSEASONAL VARIABILITY (IN
VARIOUS FORMS) HAS BECOME MORE ACTIVE OVER THE PAST 1-2 WEEKS. THIS ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND FAVORS INCREASED TROPICAL CONVECTION, BROAD
SCALE LOW PRESSURE, AND POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
WESTERN HEMISPHERE TROPICS DURING THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. INTERESTS ALONG THE GULF
COAST SHOULD MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.
MOST SEVERE DROUGHT AREAS INDICATED ON THE MAP ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST, BUT
IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED FOR FLORIDA AND SOUTH TEXAS. A STRONG, MID-LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PROLONG MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST INCLUDING AREAS SUFFERING FROM LARGE WILDFIRES.
FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH
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