232  
FXUS21 KWNC 012128  
PMDTHR  
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK  
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
300 PM EST JANUARY 01 2018  
 
SYNOPSIS: A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST IS  
PREDICTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD JAN 4 TO 5 BEFORE REACHING EASTERN CANADA BY  
JAN 6. MEANWHILE, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST  
COAST OF THE LOWER 48 STATES THROUGHOUT THE EARLY PART OF THE 3 TO 7 DAY  
PERIOD. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO FORM OVER THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT WEEK-2. ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES  
ARE ANTICIPATED FOR ALASKA THROUGHOUT MOST OF WEEK-2 WHILE MANY PARTS OF THE  
EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48 STATES ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE ANOMALOUSLY COLD  
TEMPERATURES.  
 
HAZARDS  
 
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, THU-FRI, JAN 4-JAN 5.  
 
HIGH WINDS ACROSS COASTAL PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHEAST, THU-FRI,  
JAN 4-JAN 5.  
 
HIGH WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST, FRI-SAT, JAN 5-JAN 6.  
 
HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE OHIO VALLEY, AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, SUN, JAN 7.  
 
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE  
CONUS, THU-SAT, JAN 4-JAN 6.  
 
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST, THE  
APPALACHIANS, THE MID-ATLANTIC, THE SOUTHEAST, THE GREAT LAKES, AND THE OHIO  
VALLEY, SUN, JAN 7.  
 
HIGH WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA INCLUDING KODIAK  
ISLAND, FRI-SAT, JAN 5-JAN 6.  
 
HIGH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH COAST OF ALASKA  
AND KODIAK ISLAND, FRI, JAN 5.  
 
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF MAINLAND ALASKA, THU-MON, JAN  
4-JAN 8.  
 
FLOODING OCCURRING OR IMMINENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE  
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN.  
 
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN HALF  
OF THE CONUS, TUE-THU, JAN 9-JAN 11.  
 
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS,  
NORTHERN ROCKIES, NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO  
VALLEYS, AND THE GREAT LAKES, FRI-MON, JAN 12-JAN 15.  
 
MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST,  
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, THE MID-ATLANTIC, THE GREAT LAKES, AND THE OHIO  
VALLEY, WED-THU, JAN 10-JAN 11.  
 
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY, THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE SOUTHEAST, THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND THE OHIO VALLEY, THU-SAT, JAN 11-JAN 13.  
 
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY, THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, THE MID-ATLANTIC, THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, AND  
THE SOUTHEAST, SAT-MON, JAN 13-JAN 15.  
 
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST, THE LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY,  
SAT-MON, JAN 13-JAN 15.  
 
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA, THE CENTRAL  
GREAT BASIN, AND THE SOUTHWEST, TUE-THU, JAN 9-JAN 11.  
 
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF MAINLAND ALASKA,  
TUE-MON, JAN 9-JAN 15.  
 
MODERATE RISK OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN  
MAINLAND ALASKA, THU-FRI, JAN 11-JAN 12.  
 
SEVERE DROUGHT ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS, THE SOUTHWEST, THE MIDDLE AND LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND HAWAII.  
 
DETAILED SUMMARY  
 
FOR THURSDAY JANUARY 04 - MONDAY JANUARY 08: SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST  
TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS EARLY IN THE PERIOD, BRINGING HEAVY  
RAIN TO PARTS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA JAN 4 TO 5. LOCALIZED AREAS MAY RECEIVE UP  
TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL OR GREATER IN A 24-HOUR PERIOD.  
 
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OFF THE COAST OF THE  
MID-ATLANTIC AND TRACK NORTHWESTWARD JAN 4. THE GREATEST IMPACT EXPECTED AT  
THIS TIME WOULD BE THE INCREASED RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS COASTAL PARTS OF THE  
MID-ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHEAST JAN 4 TO 5, AND THE NORTHEAST, INCLUDING INLAND  
AREAS, JAN 5 TO 6. LOCALIZED AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 30  
KNOTS OR GREATER. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOW ACROSS  
NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF MAINE JAN 4. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS  
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF SHORE AT THIS TIME. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW WOULD  
INCREASE DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT APPROACHES THE NEW  
ENGLAND COAST.  
 
A FRONT IS PREDICTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS BY JAN 6 AND MOVE  
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS. THIS FRONT MAY BRING HEAVY PRECIPITATION (ONE INCH  
OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT OR GREATER IN 24-HOURS) TO PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY, THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE OHIO VALLEY, AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY  
JAN 7. AT THIS TIME IT IS MOST LIKELY THAT IN REGIONS WITH CHANCES OF FROZEN  
PRECIPITATION, IT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND/OR FREEZING  
RAIN.  
 
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO BE DOMINATED BY AN AMPLIFIED  
MID-LEVEL TROUGH, USHERING IN COLD ARCTIC TEMPERATURES. MANY PARTS OF THE  
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS MAY EXPERIENCE MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES JAN 4  
TO 6. THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT  
EASTWARD TO THE NORTHEAST, APPALACHIANS, MID-ATLANTIC, SOUTHEAST, GREAT LAKES,  
AND THE OHIO VALLEY, JAN 7. LOCALIZED AREAS MAY HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES  
REACHING 24 DEGREES F BELOW NORMAL OR GREATER, WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING  
NEGATIVE DOUBLE DIGITS ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA.  
 
A STRONG STORM IS FORECAST TO FORM OVER THE BERING SEA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. AT  
THIS TIME, THE MAIN CONCERN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM IS HIGH WINDS ACROSS  
PARTS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA, INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND, JAN 5 TO 6,  
AND SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH COAST OF ALASKA  
AND KODIAK ISLAND JAN 5. SOME AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 40  
KNOTS OR GREATER AND SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 24 FEET OR GREATER. SOME AREAS  
NEAR BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA MAY BE IMPACTED BY ELEVATED SURF AND  
SEA WATER LEVELS JAN 6 AND 7 ASSOCIATED WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST  
FETCH. PARTS OF THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS MAY ALSO SEE  
SOME HIGH GAP WINDS JAN 6 DUE TO AN EAST-WEST PRESSURE GRADIENT, ALTHOUGH WIND  
SPEEDS LOOK MARGINAL, PRECLUDING AN ADDITIONAL HAZARDOUS WIND AREA FROM BEING  
IDENTIFIED AT THIS TIME. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTH COAST  
OF ALASKA TO RECEIVE HEAVY PRECIPITATION, ALTHOUGH THE 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND 6Z  
GFS ENSEMBLE SUPPORT LESS SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH COAST AND THUS LOWER  
ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PREDICTED TO  
DOMINATE MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA THROUGHOUT THE 3 TO 7 DAY PERIOD, FAVORING  
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF MAINLAND ALASKA JAN 4 TO 8.  
SOME AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES 40 DEGREES F OR GREATER ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
FOR TUESDAY JANUARY 09 - MONDAY JANUARY 15: AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS  
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGHOUT MOST OF  
WEEK-2. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS  
MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS JAN 9 TO 11. THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH BELOW  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWESTWARD TO PORTIONS OF  
THE GREAT PLAINS, NORTHERN ROCKIES, NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, UPPER AND MIDDLE  
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS, AND THE GREAT LAKES JAN 12 TO 15. AN AREA OF  
MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS IDENTIFIED FOR PARTS OF THE  
SOUTHEAST, THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, AND THE  
TENNESSEE VALLEY JAN 10 TO 11. THESE REGIONS MAY EXPERIENCE MINIMUM  
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWEST 15TH PERCENTILE COMPARED TO NORMAL.  
 
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THE  
MIDDLE OF WEEK-2. AS THIS LOW TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD, PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN  
QUARTER OF THE CONUS MAY HAVE INCREASED CHANCES OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION. A  
SLIGHT RISK AREA OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE  
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,  
THE SOUTHEAST, THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND THE OHIO VALLEY, JAN 11 TO 13, FOLLOWED  
BY PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, THE  
MID-ATLANTIC, THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, AND THE SOUTHEAST JAN 13 TO 15. A  
MODERATE RISK AREA OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS IDENTIFIED FOR PARTS OF THE  
SOUTHEAST, THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, AND THE  
TENNESSEE VALLEY JAN 13 TO 15. BOTH THE GEFS AND ECMWF REFORECAST TOOLS  
INDICATE A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OR GREATER OF THESE HIGHLIGHTED REGIONS RECEIVING  
3-DAY ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION IN THE UPPER 85TH PERCENTILE. THERE IS A  
POTENTIAL FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE  
HIGHLIGHTED HEAVY RAINFALL AREA. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHETHER  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIPITATION AND THE  
SPECIFIC TYPE, A GENERAL HEAVY PRECIPITATION SHAPE IS IDENTIFIED AT THIS TIME.  
 
A SURFACE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK-2  
PERIOD, SUPPORTING INCREASED CHANCES OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF  
CALIFORNIA, THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, AND THE SOUTHWEST JAN 9 TO 11. THE GEFS  
AND ECMWF REFORECAST TOOLS INDICATE A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OR GREATER OF THIS AREA  
RECEIVING A 3-DAY ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNT OF AN INCH AND A HALF OR  
GREATER AND TOTALS REACHING THE UPPER 85TH PERCENTILE.  
 
AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IS PREDICTED TO DOMINATE MUCH OF ALASKA THROUGHOUT THE  
WEEK-2 PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES.  
A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS HIGHLIGHTED FOR MANY PARTS  
OF MAINLAND ALASKA THROUGHOUT WEEK-2. A MODERATE RISK AREA IS IDENTIFIED FOR  
PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA JAN 11 TO 12. THESE REGIONS MAY  
EXPERIENCE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 85TH PERCENTILE.  
 
THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR, UPDATED ON DEC 26, SHOWS A DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE  
OF SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D2-D4) FROM 6.97% LAST WEEK TO 4.95% THIS  
WEEK. A SIDE-BY-SIDE COMPARISON OF THE LATEST TWO MAPS INDICATES SIGNIFICANT  
DROUGHT IMPROVEMENT IN THE ARKLATEX REGION, WHICH INCLUDES MUCH OF ARKANSAS,  
EASTERN OKLAHOMA, NORTHEASTERN TEXAS, AND SMALL PARTS OF NEIGHBORING LOUISIANA.  
DETERIORATION IS NOTED IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND VIRGINIA, AMONG OTHER AREAS.  
 
FORECASTER: MELISSA OU  
 

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab HPC Page Main Text Page