565  
FXUS21 KWNC 082153  
PMDTHR  
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK  
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
300 PM EST JANUARY 08 2018  
 
SYNOPSIS: A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH TWO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS IS  
FORECAST OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS US AT THE BEGINNING OF THE OUTLOOK  
PERIOD. OVER THE ENSUING THREE DAYS, THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PREDICTED TO  
REACH THE ATLANTIC COAST, WITH THE SOUTHERN LOW LIFTING OUT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.  
IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED FROM THE  
ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WEST OF THE ROCKIES, SEVERAL  
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND  
NORTHERN ROCKIES. A FAIRLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PREDICTED TO AFFECT  
SOUTHERN ALASKA DURING THE 3-7 DAY PERIOD. IN WEEK-2, A PREDOMINANTLY WARMER  
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE CONUS AND ALASKA.  
WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE PRIMARILY EXPECTED OVER WESTERN ALASKA, AND  
FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE CONUS EASTWARD TO THE APPALACHIANS, WHILE  
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ARE PREDICTED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN CONUS.  
 
HAZARDS  
 
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THE ROCKIES AND APPALACHIANS, THU-MON,  
JAN 11-15.  
 
HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHWESTERN OREGON, THU-FRI,  
JAN 11-12.  
 
HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE COUNTRY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER,  
THU-SAT, JAN 11-13.  
 
HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF ALASKA BETWEEN KODIAK AND YAKUTAT,  
FRI-SUN, JAN 12-14.  
 
HEAVY SNOW FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL  
GREAT LAKES REGION, THU-FRI, JAN 11-12.  
 
HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHERN IDAHO, THU-FRI, JAN 11-12.  
 
HIGH WINDS FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF ALASKA AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND,  
SAT-SUN, JAN 13-14.  
 
HIGH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF ALASKA, SAT-SUN, JAN 13-14.  
 
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE  
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION, THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE  
VALLEYS, THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, AND THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES  
FROM NEW JERSEY TO FLORIDA, TUE-THU, JAN 16-18.  
 
MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE  
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION, AND NORTHERN FLORIDA, TUE-THU, JAN 16-18.  
 
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS  
OF MAINLAND ALASKA, TUE, JAN 16.  
 
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL  
DIVIDE, THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, AND THE NORTH-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY, TUE-SAT, JAN 16-20.  
 
MODERATE RISK AREA OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR OREGON, MUCH OF IDAHO, WESTERN  
PORTIONS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO, UTAH, NEVADA, AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA,  
TUE-SAT, JAN 16-20.  
 
MODERATE RISK AREA OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS, THU-SAT, JAN  
18-20.  
 
HIGH RISK AREA OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN OREGON, SOUTHERN IDAHO,  
NORTHERN UTAH, NORTHERN NEVADA, AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, TUE-SAT, JAN 16-20.  
 
SEVERE DROUGHT FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, THE SOUTHWEST, THE CENTRAL AND  
SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND HAWAII.  
 
DETAILED SUMMARY  
 
FOR THURSDAY JANUARY 11 - MONDAY JANUARY 15: EARLY IN THE 3-7 DAY PERIOD, A  
COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS, WITH TWO SEPARATE LOW  
PRESSURE CENTERS ON THE FRONT. AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST, AN AREA OF  
HEAVY SNOW (AT LEAST 4 INCHES IN A 24-HOUR PERIOD) IS FORECAST FROM EASTERN  
NEBRASKA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN  
TWO-THIRDS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION (JAN 11-12). AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST OF  
THE AREA, NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON ITS REAR SIDE COULD RESULT IN  
SIGNIFICANT LAKE-ENHANCED SNOWFALL TO AREAS ADJACENT TO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.  
AN AREA OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION (2-3 INCHES) IS PREDICTED FROM ABOUT THE  
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE APPALACHIANS, THE NORTHEAST, AND THE MID-ATLANTIC  
COAST (JAN 11-13). SLEET, SNOW, AND FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED ON THE WESTERN  
AND NORTHERN SIDES OF THIS PREDICTED PRECIPITATION SHIELD, WITH RAIN ELSEWHERE.  
 
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE  
ROCKIES AND THE APPALACHIANS, JAN 11-15. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OF 12-20 DEGREES  
BELOW NORMAL ARE FORECAST.  
 
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO SEE A CONTINUED  
STORMY PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD. ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON AND  
OREGON, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 2.0-3.5 INCHES (LIQUID EQUIVALENT) ARE  
PREDICTED, WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN. AS THE ASSOCIATED STORM MOVES  
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, 2 INCHES (LIQUID EQUIVALENT) IS ANTICIPATED  
THERE, WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO TAKE THE FORM OF SNOW.  
 
A FAIRLY DEEP (965-HPA) EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONE INITIALLY NEAR THE WESTERN TIP  
OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA IS PREDICTED TO BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MOIST,  
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF ALASKA, PRIMARILY BETWEEN THE ALASKA  
PENINSULA AND YAKUTAT. PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION (PERHAPS 2-5 INCHES,  
LOCALLY GREATER), LARGE SIGNIFICANT WAVES (ABOUT 30 FEET HIGH) AND FAIRLY  
STRONG WINDS (40-45 MPH) ARE EXPECTED IN THIS REGION, WITH THE OVERALL EVENT  
EXPECTED TO LAST BETWEEN JAN 12-15. THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION HAZARD MAY ALSO  
EXTEND INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK-2 PERIOD.  
 
FOR TUESDAY JANUARY 16 - MONDAY JANUARY 22: DURING WEEK-2, BOTH TEMPERATURE AND  
PRECIPITATION HAZARDS ARE FORECAST FOR PARTS OF THE CONUS. THERE IS A SLIGHT  
(AND EMBEDDED MODERATE) RISK AREA OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE  
MIDWEST TO THE MIDDLE AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF  
THIS PERIOD, TUE-THU, JAN 16-18. THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO  
SHIFT EAST WITH TIME, BEING FOCUSED PRIMARILY OVER THE EAST COAST STATES BY JAN  
18. THEREAFTER, A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED.  
 
PRONOUNCED ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE WEST COAST STATES IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A  
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION AS FAR EAST AS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL  
PLAINS, AND THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM JAN 16-20. EMBEDDED AREAS OF  
MODERATE AND HIGH RISK (FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION) ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED FOR THE  
SAME TIME PERIOD, ACROSS A SIZABLE PORTION OF THE CONUS WEST OF THE DIVIDE.  
ANOTHER MODERATE RISK AREA IS PREDICTED OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, JAN  
18-20.  
 
THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR, VALID ON JANUARY 2, 2018 INDICATES AN INCREASE IN THE  
COVERAGE OF SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D2-D4) FROM 4.95% LAST WEEK TO 7.46%  
THIS WEEK. THE INCREASE PRIMARILY OCCURRED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND  
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.  
 
FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA  
 

 
 
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