905  
FXUS21 KWNC 092147  
PMDTHR  
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK  
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
300 PM EST JANUARY 09 2018  
 
SYNOPSIS: AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS  
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE  
INTERIOR EASTERN U.S. THE AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO DEEPEN  
OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. ON JAN 13 BEFORE MOVING INTO EASTERN CANADA JAN 14. AS  
THE AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS, CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS  
FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE PLAINS ON JAN 13 TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. JAN  
14-15. AN AREA OF REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE  
PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL U.S. JAN 15-16. DEEP AREAS OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ARE  
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS TO THE GULF OF ALASKA JAN 13-17. DURING  
THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, THE OVERALL CIRCULATION PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BECOME LESS  
AMPLIFIED AS UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WEAKENS AND  
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE WEST.  
 
HAZARDS  
 
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE PLAINS, MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,  
GREAT LAKES, AND APPALACHIANS, FRI-TUE, JAN 12-16.  
 
HIGH WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES, SAT, JAN 13.  
 
HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS,  
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEAST, FRI-SAT, JAN  
12-13.  
 
HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF ALASKA BETWEEN KODIAK AND YAKUTAT,  
AND PARTS OF THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, FRI-SUN, JAN 12-14.  
 
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALASKA NEAR KODIAK ISLAND,  
ANCHORAGE, AND SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE, SAT-SUN, JAN 13-14.  
 
PERIODS OF HIGH WINDS FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF ALASKA, PARTS OF SOUTHWEST  
MAINLAND ALASKA, THE ALASKA PENINSULA, AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, FRI-MON, JAN  
12-15.  
 
PERIODS OF HIGH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF ALASKA AND THE  
ALASKA PANHANDLE, FRI-MON, JAN 12-15.  
 
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF  
THE CONUS (EXCEPT NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NEW YORK), WED-THU, JAN 17-18.  
 
MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY  
AND GREAT LAKES, WED, JAN 17.  
 
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS  
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SAT-TUE, JAN 20-23.  
 
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS,  
WED-SUN, JAN 17-21.  
 
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN, CALIFORNIA,  
AND THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES, WED-FRI, JAN 17-19.  
 
HIGH RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND CALIFORNIA,  
WED-FRI, JAN 17-19.  
 
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN  
PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WED-FRI, JAN 17-19.  
 
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, FRI-SUN, JAN 19-21.  
 
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST, SUN-TUE, JAN  
21-23.  
 
SEVERE DROUGHT FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, THE SOUTHWEST, THE CENTRAL AND  
SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND HAWAII.  
 
DETAILED SUMMARY  
 
FOR FRIDAY JANUARY 12 - TUESDAY JANUARY 16: LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A FRONTAL  
SYSTEM OVER THE INTERIOR EASTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHEAST  
U.S. HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO AND  
TENNESSEE VALLEYS, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, MID-ATLANTIC, AND  
NORTHEAST JAN 12-13. HEAVY RAIN (AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES IN 48 HOURS),  
FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW (AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES IN 24 HOURS) IS  
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS THE LOW DEEPENS, HIGH WINDS (SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF  
30 KNOTS) ARE FORECAST FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES JAN 13.  
 
AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA, ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS  
ANTICIPATED TO BUILD FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EASTERN U.S. JAN 13-15. A  
REINFORCING AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL CONUS JAN 15-16. THIS LEADS TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE PLAINS, MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT LAKES, AND  
APPALACHIANS JAN 12-16. NEGATIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES EXCEEDING 20 DEGREES F  
ARE POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THESE REGIONS DURING THIS PERIOD.  
 
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE ALEUTIANS INTO THE GULF OF  
ALASKA JAN 13-17. HEAVY PRECIPITATION (RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN 24  
HOURS AT LOW ELEVATIONS, SNOWFALL IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES IN 24 HOURS AT HIGHER  
ELEVATIONS) IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF ALASKA BETWEEN KODIAK AND  
YAKUTAT, AND PARTS OF THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, JAN 12-14. PERIODS OF HIGH WINDS  
(SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS) AND SIGNIFICANT WAVES (HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 25  
FEET) ARE FORECAST FOR PARTS OF SOUTH COASTAL MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALASKA  
PANHANDLE JAN 12-15. A CHINOOK WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN  
ALASKA NEAR KODIAK ISLAND, ANCHORAGE, AND SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE JAN 13-14.  
THIS LEADS TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (POSITIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES  
EXCEEDING 25 DEGREES F) FOR PARTS OF THIS REGION JAN 13-14.  
 
FOR WEDNESDAY JANUARY 17 - TUESDAY JANUARY 23: DURING WEEK-2, BOTH TEMPERATURE  
AND PRECIPITATION HAZARDS ARE FORECAST FOR PARTS OF THE CONUS. THE OVERALL  
CIRCULATION PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY AS THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EAST  
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WEAKENS AND TROUGH ENERGY OVER THE PACIFIC MOVES INLAND AND  
FLATTENS THE RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE WEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS (EXCEPT NEW  
ENGLAND AND EASTERN NEW YORK) JAN 17-18, AND A MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES JAN 17. ARCTIC  
AIR IS EXPECTED TO IMPINGE ON THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE  
PERIOD LEADING TO A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF  
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY JAN 20-23.  
 
WITH TROUGH ENERGY MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, AND AIR OF PACIFIC  
ORIGIN DOMINATING MOST OF THE COUNTRY, THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY  
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS JAN 17-21, A MODERATE  
RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN, CALIFORNIA, AND THE  
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES JAN 17-19, AND A HIGH RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION  
FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND CALIFORNIA JAN 17-19. THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE  
RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND  
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY JAN 17-19, A MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR  
PARTS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY JAN 19-21, AND A SLIGHT RISK  
OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST JAN 21-23.  
 
THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR, VALID ON JANUARY 2, 2018 INDICATES AN INCREASE IN THE  
COVERAGE OF SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D2-D4) FROM 4.95% LAST WEEK TO 7.46%  
THIS WEEK. THE INCREASE PRIMARILY OCCURRED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND  
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.  
 
FORECASTER: RANDY SCHECHTER  
 

 
 
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