290  
FXUS21 KWNC 262120  
PMDTHR  
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK  
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
300 PM EST JANUARY 26 2018  
 
SYNOPSIS: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST EAST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AT THE  
START OF THE 3-7 DAY PERIOD, AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO A FRONTAL  
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WESTERN CONUS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS  
PREDICTED TO CROSS THE LOWER 48 STATES, REACHING THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY THE  
END OF THE 3-7 DAY PERIOD. ELSEWHERE, SEVERAL WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE  
ANTICIPATED TO MAINTAIN INCLEMENT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA,  
THOUGH NO HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM MAY  
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS LATE IN THE 3-7 DAY PERIOD AND EARLY IN THE  
8-14 DAY PERIOD. DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR IS PREDICTED  
TO OVERSPREAD THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, AND MUCH OF THE CONUS.  
 
HAZARDS  
 
HEAVY PRECIPITATION (MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN) FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,  
MON-TUE, JAN 29-30.  
 
HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR THE EASTERN CONUS, THU-SAT, FEB 1-3.  
 
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS, THU-FRI, FEB 1-2.  
 
FLOODING POSSIBLE IN WESTERN WASHINGTON STATE.  
 
FLOODING LIKELY IN NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS.  
 
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, THE  
NORTHWESTERN CONUS, THE GREAT PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE GREAT LAKES  
REGION, THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND THE NORTHEAST, SAT-FRI, FEB 3-9.  
 
MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE  
REGION INCLUDED IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA, SAT-FRI, FEB 3-9.  
 
HIGH RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS,  
SAT-FRI, FEB 3-9.  
 
SEVERE DROUGHT FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS, SOUTHWEST, MIDDLE AND LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND SOUTHEAST.  
 
DETAILED SUMMARY  
 
FOR MONDAY JANUARY 29 - FRIDAY FEBRUARY 02: HEAVY PRECIPITATION (MOUNTAIN SNOW  
AND VALLEY RAIN) IS PREDICTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, JAN 29-30.  
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS OF 3-4 INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED. AFTER THIS EVENT, THE  
REGION CAN EXPECT SIGNIFICANTLY LESS STORM ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH  
PACIFIC.  
 
ON FEB 1-2, ARCTIC AIR IS PREDICTED TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS  
THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS, WARRANTING A REGION OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES  
(ABOUT 12-18 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL). DURING THE SAME PERIOD, WINTRY  
PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE  
VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION, NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF  
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS. THIS PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD TO  
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COASTS EARLY IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD.  
 
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON, RELATED TO PRIOR AND  
FORECASTED HEAVY PRECIPITATION THAT IS PREDICTED TO FALL IN THE NEXT WEEK.  
FLOODING IS LIKELY IN NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS, NEAR THE TOWN OF COMO ON THE ROCK  
RIVER, DUE TO RECENT SNOW MELT, RAINFALL, AND ICE JAMS.  
 
SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO BRING INCLEMENT (BUT LIKELY  
NON-HAZARDOUS) WEATHER CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN ALASKA DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH  
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE STATE.  
 
FOR SATURDAY FEBRUARY 03 - FRIDAY FEBRUARY 09: SEVERAL BLASTS OF ARCTIC AIR ARE  
FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE  
CONUS, AND MOST AREAS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH  
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS THEREFORE INDICATED FOR THESE AREAS, FEB 3-9. A  
MODERATE RISK AREA IS INDICATED FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA CONTAINED  
WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK, FEB 3-9. A HIGH RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES  
IS PREDICTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND WESTERN  
GREAT LAKES REGION, FEB 3-9. ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD  
ACROSS THE EAST, WHILE A NEW OUTBREAK OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR IS PREDICTED TO  
MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN WEEK-2, BEFORE CONTINUING TO  
SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST OVER MOST AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE.  
 
THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR, VALID ON JANUARY 23, 2018 INDICATES AN INCREASE IN  
THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D2-D4) FROM 10.03% LAST WEEK TO  
13.60% THIS WEEK. SEVERE DROUGHT CONTINUED TO EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT  
PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST THIS PAST WEEK.  
 
FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA  
 

 
 
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