269
FXUS10 KWNH 180300
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1059 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008
VALID AUG 18/0000 UTC THRU AUG 21/1200 UTC
MODEL INITIALIZATION...
..SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR STATUS OF UPPER AIR INGEST
..TROPICAL STORM FAY
THE NAM BOUNDARY LAYER WIND ANALYSIS SHOWS A CENTER OF CIRCULATION
ABOUT 40-50 NM TO THE SW OF THE TPC OBSERVED POSN.
MODEL TRENDS...
..VIGOROUS SYSTEM REACHING THE PAC NW/SWRN CANADA WED-THU
THE 00Z NAM IS GENERALLY SLOWER AND/OR NWD VERSUS PREVIOUS RUNS
WITH THE MID LVL CLOSED LOW... AND SOMEWHAT FLATTER WITH THE MID
LVL TROF THAT EXTENDS TOWARD THE PAC NW COAST BY WED. RUN TO RUN
DIFFS WITH THE SFC FRONT REACHING THE COAST ARE MINIMAL.
..TROF INITIALLY OFF THE WEST COAST
OVER THE PAST DAY THE NAM HAS TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE LEADING
SHRTWV IMPULSE FCST TO REACH NEAR THE CA/OR BORDER BY F24 LATE
MON. AS TRAILING ENERGY FEEDS INTO THE OVERALL TROF... THE 00Z
NAM TRENDS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN PREVIOUS RUNS DURING TUE-WED.
..COLORADO UPPER LOW DRIFTING INTO THE PLAINS
NAM RUNS FROM THE PAST 24 HRS SHOW ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH NO
WELL DEFINED TRENDS.
..TROF AMPLIFYING OVER SERN CANADA/NERN CONUS
THE NAM SHOWS GOOD CONTINUITY SFC AND ALOFT ASIDE FROM TYPICAL RUN
TO RUN DETAIL DIFFS.
..TROPICAL STORM FAY
THE 00Z NAM TRACK IS GENERALLY SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
THE 12Z AND YDAYS 00Z RUNS. THE 18Z NAM TRACK WAS MUCH FARTHER
WWD THAN THESE OTHER RECENT NAM RUNS.
...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML...
RAUSCH
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