378
FXHW01 KWNH 091131
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
730 AM EDT WED MAY 09 2012
VALID 00Z THU MAY 10 2012 - 00Z THU MAY 17 2012
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BRISK TRADES MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A MAINLY
WINDWARD SHOWER PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY. A SERIES OF IMPULSES
DIGGING SEWD TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FRIDAY THRUOGH THE
WEEKEND WILL THEN ACT TO DISRUPT TRADES AND DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE LEADING TO MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. MOISTURE POOLING
INTO AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT/SHEARLINE COULD FURTHER ENHANCE
ACTIVITY BY SUN/MON. THE MODELS REMAIN MIXED WITH EITHER HOLDING
THE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OR INTO THE STATE. EXPECTED HEIGHT
FALLS TO THE LEE OF AN AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM RIDGE THOUGH SUGGEST
THAT AT LEAST A WEAKENING BOUNDARY WILL REACH THE ISLANDS BY MON
AND THIS SOLUTION SEEMS BETTER SUPPORTED BY ENSEMBLES...FOLLOWED
BY SOME INCREASE OF POST-BOUNDARY TRADES INTO TUE/WED.
SCHICHTEL
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