581
FXHW01 KWNH 101122
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
722 AM EDT THU MAY 10 2012
VALID 00Z FRI MAY 11 2012 - 00Z FRI MAY 18 2012
A MODERATE TRADE AND LIMITED WINDWARD SHOWER PATTERN TODAY WILL
SOON BEGIN TO TRANSITION AS A SERIES OF IMPULSES DIG SEWD TOWARD
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ACT TO
DISRUPT TRADES AND DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE LEADING TO MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. MOISTURE POOLING INTO AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT/SHEARLINE COULD FURTHER ENHANCE ACTIVITY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT GUIDANCE REMAINS MIXED WITH EITHER HOLDING THE BOUNDARY
TO THE NORTH OR INTO THE STATE. HEIGHT FALLS TO THE LEE OF AN
AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM RIDGE STILL OFFERS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK
BOUNDARY TO REACH THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THIS SOLUTION
STILL HAS REASONABLE SUPPORT OF AT LEAST A DOZEN GFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. IN ANY CASE...EXPECT SOME INCREASE OF ISLAND
TRADES TUE-THU.
SCHICHTEL
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