391  
FXUS10 KWNH 140639  
PMDHMD  
 
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
238 AM EDT SAT OCT 14 2017  
 
VALID OCT 14/0000 UTC THRU OCT 17/1200 UTC  
 
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR  
INGEST...  
 
00Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT  
RANGE FORECASTS.  
 
FRONT APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
PREFERENCE: NON-CANADIAN BLEND; CONFIDENCE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVE  
 
THE 12Z CANADIAN WAS SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVERALL, WHICH LED TO  
A MUCH SLOWER APPROACH TO WASHINGTON STATE SUNDAY NIGHT. A  
COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z ECMWF, 12Z UKMET, 00Z NAM, AND 00Z GFS IS  
PREFERRED WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.  
 
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES  
EARLY SUN/BY MAINE SUN NIGHT  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
PREFERENCE: NON-NAM BLEND; CONFIDENCE ABOVE AVERAGE  
 
THE 00Z NAM REMAINS A SLOW/DEEP OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM.  
CONSIDERING A NEARBY KICKER SHORTWAVE, A QUICKER SOLUTION IS MORE  
LIKELY. A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z ECMWF, 12Z UKMET, 12Z CANADIAN,  
AND 00Z GFS IS PREFERRED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.  
 
KICKER SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT/  
THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT  
LINGERING UPPER TROUGH/UPPER LOW NEAR THE BAHAMAS INTO MONDAY  
FRONT MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST FRIDAY/SATURDAY  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE SYSTEMS. A  
COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z ECMWF, 12Z UKMET, 12Z CANADIAN, 00Z GFS, AND  
00Z NAM IS PREFERRED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.  
 
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML  
 
ROTH  

 
 
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