743  
FXHW01 KWNH 141202  
PMDHI  
 
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
802 AM EDT SAT OCT 14 2017  
 
VALID 00Z SUN OCT 15 2017 - 00Z SUN OCT 22 2017  
 
AS A SURFACE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY  
FROM THE STATE TO THE WEST, HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING TO THE NORTH OF  
THE STATE WILL PROMOTE VERY STRONG TRADES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MOST  
OF THE WEEK. MODEL TRENDS OVER THE PAST DAY HAVE BEEN TOWARD A  
SOMEWHAT STRONGER/MORE PERSISTENT RIDGE ALOFT TO THE  
NORTHWEST/NORTH OF THE STATE LATE IN THE WEEK, ULTIMATELY DELAYING  
THE WEAKENING OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BY ABOUT A DAY. THUS IT  
MAY TAKE UNTIL SATURDAY FOR WINDY CONDITIONS TO SLACKEN SOMEWHAT.  
 
THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR SOME LOCALLY ENHANCED RAINFALL THIS  
WEEKEND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TENDING TO BE IN THE  
1.50-1.75 INCH RANGE. GUIDANCE AGREES ON A DRYING TREND AFTER  
SUNDAY WITH PWATS DECLINING TO 1-1.25 INCHES. ACTIVITY SHOULD  
FOCUS OVER WINDWARD TERRAIN BUT MAY OCCASIONALLY REACH OTHER  
LOCATIONS AS WELL. THE AFOREMENTIONED TREND WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT  
NOW YIELDS BETTER AGREEMENT THAT ANY UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO THE  
SOUTH OF THE RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED AND FAIRLY WEAK, KEEPING  
LOWER LATITUDE MOISTURE WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE THROUGH THE END OF  
THE PERIOD-- IN CONTRAST TO ISOLATED PIECES OF GUIDANCE THAT HAD  
PREVIOUSLY INCREASED MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ISLANDS LATE  
IN THE WEEK.  
 
RAUSCH  
 

 
 
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