825  
FXUS10 KWNH 150431  
PMDHMD  
 
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
1230 AM EDT SUN OCT 15 2017  
 
VALID OCT 15/0000 UTC THRU OCT 18/1200 UTC  
 
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR  
INGEST...  
 
00Z GFS/NAM EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ISSUES DO NOT APPEAR TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT  
RANGE FORECASTS.  
 
FRONT APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
PREFERENCE: NON-CANADIAN BLEND; CONFIDENCE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVE  
 
THE CANADIAN CONTINUES TO LAG THE OTHER GUIDANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM  
WHILE IT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. WITH THE SUPPORT OF  
THE 12Z ECMWF AND 18Z GEFS MEANS, PREFER A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z  
ECMWF, 12Z UKMET, 00Z GFS, AND 00Z NAM WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE  
CONFIDENCE.  
 
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA TUE NIGHT/WEDNESDAY  
SHORTWAVE MOVING BY MAINE TUESDAY NIGHT  
KICKER SHORTWAVE AMPLIFYING INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT  
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT  
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY SUN/BY MAINE SUN NIGHT  
UPPER TROUGH/LOW NEAR THE BAHAMAS THROUGH MONDAY  
TROUGHING ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE SYSTEMS. A  
COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z NAM, 00Z GFS, 12Z ECMWF, 12Z CANADIAN, AND  
12Z UKMET IS PREFERRED TO DEAL WITH LINGERING DETAIL ISSUES WITH  
ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.  
 
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML  
 
ROTH  

 
 
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