042  
FXUS10 KWNH 150644  
PMDHMD  
 
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
243 AM EDT SUN OCT 15 2017  
 
VALID OCT 15/0000 UTC THRU OCT 18/1200 UTC  
 
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR  
INGEST...  
 
00Z MODEL PREFERENCES WITH CONFIDENCE INTERVALS  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ISSUES DO NOT APPEAR TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT  
RANGE FORECASTS.  
 
FRONT APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT  
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA TUE NIGHT/WEDNESDAY  
SHORTWAVE MOVING BY MAINE TUESDAY NIGHT  
KICKER SHORTWAVE AMPLIFYING INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT  
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT  
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY SUN/BY MAINE SUN NIGHT  
UPPER TROUGH/LOW NEAR THE BAHAMAS THROUGH MONDAY  
TROUGHING ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE SYSTEMS. A  
COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z NAM, 00Z GFS, 00Z ECMWF, 00Z CANADIAN, AND  
00Z UKMET IS PREFERRED TO DEAL WITH LINGERING DETAIL ISSUES WITH  
ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.  
 
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML  
 
ROTH  

 
 
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