987  
FXHW01 KWNH 151209  
PMDHI  
 
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
809 AM EDT SUN OCT 15 2017  
 
VALID 00Z MON OCT 16 2017 - 00Z MON OCT 23 2017  
 
LATEST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT AND AGREEABLE  
WITH MOST ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. EXPECT  
STRONG TRADES/WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE  
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES NORTH OF THE STATE BETWEEN 30-40N LATITUDE  
AND AN UPSTREAM HIGH PROVIDES REINFORCEMENT AROUND MIDWEEK. WINDS  
WILL LIKELY WEAKEN SOMEWHAT BY NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES  
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CENTRAL  
PACIFIC. RAINFALL DURING THE PERIOD SHOULD FOCUS OVER WINDWARD  
TERRAIN BUT MAY STRAY INTO OTHER LOCALES AT TIMES. THE  
COMBINATION OF RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS RIDGING BUILDS TO THE  
NORTHWEST AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DECLINING TO AROUND 1-1.25  
INCHES (0.5-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL) SHOULD LEAD TO  
AMOUNTS IN THE LIGHTER HALF OF THE SPECTRUM FOR SEVERAL DAYS. BY  
NEXT WEEKEND GUIDANCE EXPECTS RIDGING ALOFT TO WEAKEN BUT WITH  
ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE, SO SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN  
FAIRLY LIGHT.  
 
RAUSCH  
 

 
 
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