036  
FXUS10 KWNH 160627  
PMDHMD  
 
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
226 AM EDT MON OCT 16 2017  
 
VALID OCT 16/0000 UTC THRU OCT 19/1200 UTC  
 
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR  
INGEST...  
 
00Z MODEL PREFERENCES WITH CONFIDENCE INTERVALS  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT  
RANGE FORECASTS.  
 
LARGE/DEEP GULF OF AK CYCLONE WARM FRONT PASSAGE IN NORTHWEST WED  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
PREFERENCE: NON-NAM BLEND; CONFIDENCE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE  
 
WHILE THE 00Z GFS APPEARS SLOWER WITH THE WARM FRONT PORTION  
OFFSHORE BRITISH COLUMBIA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, IT  
APPEARS A HAIR QUICKER AND A LITTLE MORE DEFINED WITH THE PORTION  
NEAR OR. THIS IS NOTICEABLE IN THE QPF PATTERNS OF THE GUIDANCE.  
OVERALL THOUGH, THIS IS WELL WITHIN THE NOISE/POTENTIAL  
UNCERTAINTY CONSIDERING THE SYSTEM'S PROGRESSION. THE 00Z NAM WAS  
NOTICEABLY QUICKEST DUE TO ITS FASTER MOVING LOW MOVING TOWARDS  
THE AK PANHANDLE. A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS, 00Z UKMET, 00Z  
CANADIAN, AND 00Z ECMWF IS PREFERRED TO DEAL WITH ANY LINGERING  
DETAIL ISSUES WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.  
 
TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY  
SHORTWAVE AND CLIPPING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS MAINE TUES NIGHT/WED  
SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND  
TUES  
TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FROM MONDAY ONWARD  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE SYSTEMS. A  
COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS, 00Z NAM, 00Z UKMET, 00Z CANADIAN, AND  
00Z ECMWF IS PREFERRED TO DEAL WITH ANY LINGERING DETAIL ISSUES  
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.  
 
WESTERN CANADA SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN TIER BY WED  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
PREFERENCE: MODEL BLEND; CONFIDENCE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE  
 
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH ONLY SLIGHT PROGRESSION  
ISSUES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH  
THE 00Z NAM ON THE FAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE. THE 00Z GFS SHOWS A  
SOMEWHAT SLOWER SOLUTION BUT IS A LITTLE MORE POSITIVELY TILTED AT  
500 HPA. THIS IS ALL WITHIN THE NOISE/POTENTIAL UNCERTAINTY  
CONSIDERING THE SYSTEM'S PROGRESSION. A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z  
GFS, 00Z NAM, 00Z UKMET, 00Z CANADIAN, AND 00Z ECMWF IS PREFERRED  
TO DEAL WITH ANY LINGERING DETAIL ISSUES WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE  
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.  
 
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML  
 
ROTH  

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab HPC Page Main Text Page