340  
FXUS10 KWNH 170415  
PMDHMD  
 
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
1214 AM EDT TUE OCT 17 2017  
 
VALID OCT 17/0000 UTC THRU OCT 20/1200 UTC  
 
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR  
INGEST...  
 
00Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT  
RANGE FORECASTS.  
 
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY  
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT  
SHORTWAVE MOVING QUICKLY ALONG THE U.S.-CANADA BORDER TUE-THU  
ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT  
TROUGH TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TUESDAY  
LINGERING BROAD TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES  
STALLING COLD FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF FLORIDA  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND  
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE  
 
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE SURFACE, 700 HPA, AND 500  
HPA WITH THE SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE LOWER 48 OVER THE NEXT 84  
HOURS. A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z ECMWF, 12Z CANADIAN, 12Z UKMET,  
00Z GFS, AND 00Z NAM IS PREFERRED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.  
 
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML  
 
ROTH  

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab HPC Page Main Text Page