604  
FXHW01 KWNH 211228  
PMDHI  
 
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
828 AM EDT SAT OCT 21 2017  
 
VALID 00Z SUN OCT 22 2017 - 00Z SUN OCT 29 2017  
   
..HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR NEXT WEEK
 
 
AS TRADES CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDWARD/MAUKA  
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON MONDAY, A TROUGH IS  
FORECAST TO DIG ALONG/PAST ~35N/165W AND WILL FORM A CLOSED LOW  
NEAR 30N/160W EARLY TUESDAY. THE CONSENSUS MEANDERS THIS UPPER LOW  
NORTH OF KAUAI ON MONDAY BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AND THEN  
NORTHEAST WED/THU. THIS WILL HELP DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW AROUND  
32N/156W EARLY TUESDAY AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE  
STARTING LATE MONDAY. LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL VEERS TO SOUTHEASTERLY  
OR SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT (POTENTIALLY BREEZY 20-30 KTS) AND  
AN INCREASE IN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ IS EXPECTED  
WHICH SUPPORTS A HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVER ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN  
ISLANDS. NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HELP DRY OUT THE REGION  
FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE WEEK. RAINFALL TOTALS MAY EXCEED SEVERAL  
INCHES WITH NEAR TEN INCHES IN FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN.  
 
FRACASSO  
 

 
 
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