872  
FXHW01 KWNH 251229  
PMDHI  
 
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
828 AM EDT WED OCT 25 2017  
 
VALID 00Z THU OCT 26 2017 - 00Z THU NOV 02 2017  
 
A MAIN FRONT WILL SETTLE JUST EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND TO EASE THE  
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AFTER TODAY AS DRIER AIR SETTLES ACROSS THE  
STATE. THIS ALL OCCURS UNDERNEATH A POTENT CLOSED LOW SPINNING TO  
THE NORTH OF THE STATE. A DECENT CLUSTER OF ECMWF/CANADIAN  
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OFFER A SLIGHTLY SLOWER EJECTION OF THIS LOW THAN  
A DETERMINISTIC MODEL COMPOSITE AND GEFS ENSEMBLES. THAT SEEMS  
QUITE PLAUSIBLE GIVEN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE HISTORICAL NATURE  
OF CLOSED SYSTEMS. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES  
WITHIN A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE ITCZ SHIFT JUST OFFSHORE THE  
BIG ISLAND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES  
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW CLOSED  
LOW/TROUGH ALOFT. IN RESPONSE, RETURN MOISTURE FLOW AND SHOWERS  
MAY GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE ISLANDS SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT  
WEDNESDAY AS THE STALLED LEAD FRONT WEAKENS AND LOSES INFLUENCE.  
 
SCHICHTEL  
 

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab HPC Page Main Text Page