394  
FXHW01 KWNH 311211  
PMDHI  
 
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
810 AM EDT TUE OCT 31 2017  
 
VALID 00Z WED NOV 01 2017 - 00Z WED NOV 08 2017  
 
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS THE NORTHWEST ISLANDS WILL SEE THE  
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE  
SUPPORTED BY A DEEP UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE AND  
LEADING FLOW THAT SHOULD BRING AN AXIS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER  
VALUES APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING TWO INCHES OVER THE THREAT AREA.  
GUIDANCE AGREES WELL ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO. EXPECT DRIER  
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS  
OVER AND NORTH OF THE STATE, WITH PWATS DECLINING TO THE 1.00-1.25  
INCH RANGE BY SUNDAY-TUESDAY. THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WINDS  
WILL AVERAGE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH LOW PRESSURE/FRONT TO THE  
WEST AND AN OPEN RIDGE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. THEN EXPECT WINDS  
TO STRENGTHEN AND TURN MORE EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS  
SOUTHWARD ALONG ABOUT 150W LONGITUDE. DURING THE FIRST HALF OF  
NEXT WEEK MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS A COLD FRONT ERODING THIS RIDGE FROM  
THE NORTHWEST, LEADING TO SOME WEAKENING OF TRADES NEXT TUESDAY.  
THE ONE NOTABLE MODEL DIFFERENCE BY NEXT TUESDAY IS THAT THE 06Z  
GFS BRINGS THE TROUGH ALOFT TO THE WEST OF THE STATE A LITTLE  
FARTHER EAST THAN CONSENSUS, SO PREFERENCE WOULD BE TO LEAN AWAY  
FROM THAT SOLUTION TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
RAUSCH  
 

 
 
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